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Tag: crude oil

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Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.
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BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
06/12/20260Comments

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
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Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
06/11/20260Comments

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The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…
05/04/20260Comments

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Hormuz Truce Fails to Quell Fuel Fears: IATA Warns of Months-Long Supply Snag

IATA chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening https://t.co/0KqLSqjPPM pic.twitter.com/H0qhi64avY — Alma Angeles (@AlmaANET25) April 8, 2026 IATA Director General Willie Walsh warning that jet fuel supply restoration in the Middle East will require months even after Strait of Hormuz reopening, due to major refining capacity damage. The statement follows…
04/11/20260Comments

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