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The Iran-United States war, triggered in Q1 2026, introduced a second-order exogenous shock to the gold market, destabilizing the strongest pillar of the decade-long bull run: central bank demand. The announcement of the suspension of gold sales by the Azerbaijani sovereign wealth fund (SOFAZ), forced sales by Turkey and Russia, and the contraction of…
The original Triffin Dilemma (Bretton Woods I) pitted the issuance of international liquidity (USD) against the necessary convertibility into gold, creating a tension between domestic objectives (avoiding inflation) and international objectives (providing reserves). In the Bretton Woods 2.0 framework, the form of this dilemma is rewritten based on strict collateral rules imposed by the GENIUS…
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