While the BoJ’s 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) keeps the yen carry transmission channel active but damped, real risks to BTC increasingly reside elsewhere: a maturing macro slowdown (US Q1 2026 GDP +1.6% annualized, Eurozone ~0.8% projected for 2026), volatile Bitcoin ETF flows (recent outflows amid cumulative ~$54B+ inflows since launch but…
Executive Summary
The posited Liquidity Trap manifests as a regime where elevated nominal asset prices (gold near recent highs, equities at stretched valuations) coincide with forced liquidations driven by margin calls, collateral constraints, and retail FOMO entry, without corresponding real-economy liquidity expansion. Under conditions of gold stabilizing below $4,150/oz and WTI/Brent oil around $88/bbl (current…
Analysis of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on-chain transfers between February 12-14, 2026, revealed approximately 1,500 BTC ($158M+) moved to Coinbase Prime. This occurred during $158M in IBIT redemptions against total industry outflows of $410M, constituting a textbook custodial rebalancing operation, not discretionary liquidation by BlackRock. The 1,500 BTC transfer represents only 0.30% of IBIT's…
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