A long-only Bitcoin strategy with a target Sharpe ratio of 0.8–1.2 and 60–70% volatility is an inherently risky proposition. The asset is high-beta with extreme negative skew and fat tails. While the elevated Sharpe suggests a high risk premium, this masks a pathological risk of ruin during retail capitulation events.
The market's inefficiency stems…
The thesis puts forward a five-part proposition: (i) the "vital energy" mentioned in the source text is formally isomorphic to the economic quantity of human attention, a scarce, allocable, measurable resource, as theorized by Herbert Simon (1971) and Michael Goldhaber (1997); (ii) this resource is captured by large corporations through a chain of signaling (Spence,…
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SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…
Abstract
The emergence of artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force has catalyzed an unprecedented surge in demand for semiconductor components, creating a phenomenon economists are beginning to term "chipflation." This technical analysis examines the multifaceted impact of AI-driven chip demand on global inflation, market dynamics, and investment opportunities across the semiconductor ecosystem. Through quantitative…
RÉSUMÉ
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft et Oracle ont émis un total de 88 milliards de dollars en obligations de qualité investissement entre septembre et novembre 2025, selon Dealogic. Ce montant, qui dépasse largement les émissions des trois années précédentes (66 milliards de dollars), est principalement motivé par des investissements massifs dans l'infrastructure de l'IA, notamment…
Le secteur de l'IA et des infrastructures critiques observe une montée en puissance du financement via des véhicules spéciaux (SPV) et du shadow banking technologique, une tendance adoptée par les géants de la technologie (Big Tech, Semi, Cloud). Ces schémas, illustrés par NVIDIA/xAI, visent à accélérer la (i) reconnaissance des revenus, (ii) externaliser l'endettement (hors…
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