Gold and silver prices have experienced significant corrections, with gold falling 25% from its January peak of $5,600 to around $4,100, and silver dropping nearly 50% from over $120 to about $60. This volatility has led some investors to question their timing and whether to cut losses or wait for recovery. However, short-term price fluctuations,…
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points has drawn market attention, with 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%.
However, Laurent Morel believe investors are overemphasizing the Fed's actions. While central banks can influence demand through borrowing costs, they cannot address physical supply constraints, no rate hike can produce an extra…
Summary. Quantitative Analysis of Gold Performance (+123% Since September 2023) and 2026-2027 Projections Post-Fed Decision
A. Executive Summary.
Gold spot price (Sept 18, 2026): $4,344.67, consolidating post-Fed.
- Performance since Sept 2023: +125%, indicating a structural bull market.
- Fed decision (Sept 16, 2026): Raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since…
The provided article is a financial news analysis of the September 19-20, 2023, FOMC meeting, confirmed by internal data and factual verification. All key assertions, such as a 5.25%-5.50% target rate, a ~97% pause probability, NFP of +187,000, unemployment at 3.8%, core CPI at 4.3%, and a $95 billion/month QT, are accurate.
The meeting…
The structural relationship between gold and US real rates has broken since 2022. Previously, gold moved inversely to real rates; now, gold reaches all-time highs despite elevated real rates (~2.0%). Central banks from emerging markets have structurally increased gold purchases to ~1,000 tonnes/year (2022-2024), up from ~500 tonnes, shifting away from dollar reserves. This creates…
Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It must be understood through the dependency structure of counterparties and the second derivative of infrastructure spending.
Our cross-analysis shows:
¤ The central risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but the existence of a correlation of one…
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