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Markets

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Markets

Markets, Markets Data, Private Markets, Equities, Bonds, Stocks, Currencies, Commodities, Crypto, Monetary Policy Radar, Wealth Management, Moral Money, Money, ETF, ETF Hub, Asset Management, Private Equity.

A striking close-up of a gold bar showing inscriptions, captured with warm lighting.

Analyse de marché

Gold as an Implicit Call Option on Fiat Collapse: A Model-Driven Analysis

According to the methodology of Dixit and Pindyck (1994), gold contains an implicit call option on the collapse of the fiat system. The price dynamics St incorporate a Poisson jump process Nt: dSt/St = μdt + σdWt + (J-1)dNt, where Nt∼Poisson(λ) for the arrival of a systemic fiat crisis, and J is the jump amplitude…

08/16/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché

ScoreGex, la révolution des AVM (Automated Valuation Models)

Le marché mondial de l'immobilier représente 435 000 milliards USD en 2026, soit 66 % des actifs mondiaux (Global Real Estate = $435T, Global Bonds = $155T, Global Stocks = $130T, M2 = $105T, Gold = $37T, Crypto = $2.7T). La France, avec un parc immobilier valorisé à environ 12 000 milliards EUR, constitue le deuxième marché européen. ScoreGex.com se positionne…

08/16/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Gold coins scattered with a stock market graph and a percentage symbol on an orange background.

Markets

Why Gold’s Low Sharpe Ratio Masks Its True Value as a Strategic Tail-Risk Hedge

Gold (Sharpe 0.4-0.7, Volatility 12-15%) acts as a reserve asset, inversely correlated with the DXY. Its low Sharpe ratio is due to no carry yield and custody costs, but it offers absolute decorrelation during systemic geopolitical shocks. Physical gold is now central to monetary influence wars (BIS Basel 2024-2025). Steelldy Engine 3.8 and Planet Labs…

Pools of Liquidity, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios

Pools of Liquidity, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios has been validated on August 13, 2026, within the M. Theory 4.2 framework, public market data, and thesis calibrations. The section is directionally robust and consistent with the observed market microstructure. |1| Pools of Liquidity COMEX Gold (GC) & Silver (SI) Futures: Maximum depth in the…

The Monte Carlo analysis of JPY carry trade

The Monte Carlo analysis of JPY carry trade unwind uses a Merton Jump-Diffusion model to simulate USD/JPY dynamics over a 90-day horizon, capturing both continuous exchange rate movements and sudden discontinuities from forced position closures. The model incorporates calibrated parameters including a spot rate of 158.5, stressed volatility ranging from 9% to 18%, and jump…

Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Intervention Mechanisms of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) / Ministry of Finance (MoF)

Institutional and fundamental legal framework Unlike many central banks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has no autonomous decision-making power over foreign exchange intervention. This authority rests solely with the Minister of Finance under Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act. The BOJ acts only as a technical agent for the Ministry of Finance (MoF), with…

Global Systemic Convergence of the 7 Vectors (December 2025). Reassessment and Recalibration as of August 10, 2026

The original thesis from December 6-13, 2025, predicting a catastrophic systemic event driven by a Fed-BOJ shock and a $11.5 trillion carry trade unwind within 90 days, was not validated in its magnitude or timing. Observed reality shows USD/JPY peaked around 164 in late July 2026 after coordinated intervention, now near 158. The BOJ hiked…

Profitability and margin structure. Quantified comparison of SpaceX (Q2 2026) vs hyperscaler models (AWS, Azure/Microsoft Cloud, Google Cloud, Meta AI infrastructure).

https://www.steelldy-indices.com SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…

Structured Quantitative Financial Analysis of SpaceX. Consolidated Accounts for Q2 2026 (period ended June 30, 2026)

Revenue decomposition and growth dynamics for Q2 FY26 Consolidated revenue reached 7,814, representing a 91.94% year-over-year increase from 4,071. The total revenue growth of 3,743 is driven by AI compute capacity rental (approx. +1,880, 50.2% of the increase), Starlink Connectivity (approx. +1,700, 45.4%), and Space Launch & other (residual +163). Key margins for Q2 FY26:…

Dr. Copper & Global Recession Risk

Executive Summary Copper ("Dr. Copper") remains a useful leading indicator of global industrial activity due to its ubiquitous use (power grids, construction, automotive, electronics, data centers). Futures are currently trading above $6.50/lb (COMEX), up about 30% year-over-year, and are holding above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The metal formed a trough before equity markets…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac