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Analyse de marché

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STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Analyse de marché

Toute l'actualité de la finance et des marchés (Banques, assurances, gestion d'actifs, M&A, matières premières...). Vidéos, analyses, commentaires et interviews.

Vertical shot of a SpaceX rocket tower against a blue sky in Dubai, UAE.

Analyse de marché

SpaceX (SPCX). Post-IPO Dynamics, Negative Convexity & AI Integration

The chart analysis (daily SPCX candlesticks, mid-June to mid-August 2026) confirms negative convexity from massive retail participation. The IPO on June 12, 2026, was at $135, peaking at $225.64 (+67%) on June 16, then bottoming around $105-110 in late July/early August. A recent rebound (highlighted blue zone) shows +37.79 points (+35.27%) over 11 days 7…

08/18/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Abstract composition of wind turbines on an orange gradient backdrop.

Markets

Power Is the New Bottleneck. AI’s 945 TWh Problem Reprices Energy, Compute and Capital (2026–2030)

The base case, from the IEA. Global data centres consumed about 415 TWh in 2024, 1.5% of world electricity, roughly Germany plus Austria. By 2030, that doubles to ~945 TWh, just under 3% of global consumption, growing ~15% per year, four times faster than all other sectors combined. Inside that number, the split is…

08/17/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A striking close-up of a gold bar showing inscriptions, captured with warm lighting.

Analyse de marché

Gold as an Implicit Call Option on Fiat Collapse: A Model-Driven Analysis

According to the methodology of Dixit and Pindyck (1994), gold contains an implicit call option on the collapse of the fiat system. The price dynamics St incorporate a Poisson jump process Nt: dSt/St = μdt + σdWt + (J-1)dNt, where Nt∼Poisson(λ) for the arrival of a systemic fiat crisis, and J is the jump amplitude…

08/16/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché

ScoreGex, la révolution des AVM (Automated Valuation Models)

Le marché mondial de l'immobilier représente 435 000 milliards USD en 2026, soit 66 % des actifs mondiaux (Global Real Estate = $435T, Global Bonds = $155T, Global Stocks = $130T, M2 = $105T, Gold = $37T, Crypto = $2.7T). La France, avec un parc immobilier valorisé à environ 12 000 milliards EUR, constitue le deuxième marché européen. ScoreGex.com se positionne…

Why Gold’s Low Sharpe Ratio Masks Its True Value as a Strategic Tail-Risk Hedge

Gold (Sharpe 0.4-0.7, Volatility 12-15%) acts as a reserve asset, inversely correlated with the DXY. Its low Sharpe ratio is due to no carry yield and custody costs, but it offers absolute decorrelation during systemic geopolitical shocks. Physical gold is now central to monetary influence wars (BIS Basel 2024-2025). Steelldy Engine 3.8 and Planet Labs…

Pools of Liquidity, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios

Pools of Liquidity, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios has been validated on August 13, 2026, within the M. Theory 4.2 framework, public market data, and thesis calibrations. The section is directionally robust and consistent with the observed market microstructure. |1| Pools of Liquidity COMEX Gold (GC) & Silver (SI) Futures: Maximum depth in the…

The Monte Carlo analysis of JPY carry trade

The Monte Carlo analysis of JPY carry trade unwind uses a Merton Jump-Diffusion model to simulate USD/JPY dynamics over a 90-day horizon, capturing both continuous exchange rate movements and sudden discontinuities from forced position closures. The model incorporates calibrated parameters including a spot rate of 158.5, stressed volatility ranging from 9% to 18%, and jump…

Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Intervention Mechanisms of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) / Ministry of Finance (MoF)

Institutional and fundamental legal framework Unlike many central banks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has no autonomous decision-making power over foreign exchange intervention. This authority rests solely with the Minister of Finance under Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act. The BOJ acts only as a technical agent for the Ministry of Finance (MoF), with…

Global Systemic Convergence of the 7 Vectors (December 2025). Reassessment and Recalibration as of August 10, 2026

The original thesis from December 6-13, 2025, predicting a catastrophic systemic event driven by a Fed-BOJ shock and a $11.5 trillion carry trade unwind within 90 days, was not validated in its magnitude or timing. Observed reality shows USD/JPY peaked around 164 in late July 2026 after coordinated intervention, now near 158. The BOJ hiked…

Profitability and margin structure. Quantified comparison of SpaceX (Q2 2026) vs hyperscaler models (AWS, Azure/Microsoft Cloud, Google Cloud, Meta AI infrastructure).

https://www.steelldy-indices.com SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…

08/10/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac