Christopher Whalen, who has spent more than 40 years analyzing bank balance sheets and is a former employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, sold all his bank stocks in late September and opened short positions in consumer lending companies. The head of Whalen Global Advisors and editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst,…
"The sooner we get our energy from anything besides oil, the better chance we have of not exterminating ourselves. I doubt the species lives long enough to die from climate change. That's what I think." Season 1, Episode 7 "Lioness"
Выражение «избавиться от нефти» вводит в заблуждение: «рынки» перераспределяют капитал в зависимости от изменения доходности…
Central banks’ accumulation of gold reflects a structural shift in the monetary system: gold is becoming a strategic reserve and settlement asset, beyond its traditional hedging function. According to the World Gold Council, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, and 45% plan to increase their own…
The dominant source remains macro-narrative, but quantitative trading requires microstructure layers missing from the "petrodollar → gold" narrative. Since May 2026, vessels, including VLCCs and LNG carriers, have switched off AIS transponders to cross the Strait of Hormuz in small groups, sometimes under |...| coordination; by August 2026, 62% of tanker crossings occurred with AIS…
Technological revolutions are not equal as investment themes; they are equal as cost curves. Three curves are collapsing simultaneously in 2026-2030, the cost of AI inference, the cost of physical action (humanoid robotics and logistics), and the cost of biological reading/writing (sequencing, synthesis), and their intersection is creating the markets of the decade: instrumented smart…
Paradoxical but verifiable: European regulation (MiCA fully applicable, transition completed in 2026; CSRD/ESG taxonomy under development) is not a burden but the competitive moat of the European crypto ecosystem, and a scoring market in its own right. The EU tokenized market is estimated at €2,000 billion by 2028; CASP authorization costs €500k–€1M; barriers to entry…
Traditional real estate valuation methods, including hedonic OLS regression and aggregated spatial medians, suffer from structural methodological weaknesses when applied to tokenized real-world assets (RWA) and Yield Trusts. Under Shapiro-Varian's Information Rules theory, reproducible raw transaction data available at zero marginal cost, such as France's DVF database, converges toward zero market value. Moreover, raw DVF…
Quantitative modeling assesses AI infrastructure risks through several methods. A Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 trajectories over 24 months, using expansion and disillusionment drifts of 15% and −25%, volatilities of 20% and 45%, a monthly jump probability of 3%, and normally distributed jumps with mean −35% and standard deviation 10%, yields cumulative losses at the…
The restructuring of the global economy to finance the AI capital shortfall rests on recycling Asian savings, mobilizing new investors, and transforming cash flows into investable assets.
First, the AI boom generates liquidity in South Korea and Taiwan, part of which flows into dollar-denominated assets and indirectly supports investment by US hyperscalers. Taiwan’s current…
La combinaison de la rareté des actifs, de la pénurie de logements, de la concentration du capital, de la volatilité des revenus liés à l’IA, des paiements récurrents et des infrastructures numériques produira une économie où les actifs rares conserveront une valeur considérable, tandis que leur propriété restera concentrée et leur accès sera de plus…
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