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Tag: Steelldy-Indices

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STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Golden Bitcoin coins scattered over US dollar bills, symbolizing modern digital currency.

Cryptos

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD)

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD) remains weak and unstable over the long term, making them an excellent diversification pair. Long-term (since 2015/3-5 years): average correlation ≈ +0.10 to +0.13. Over one year: typically between -0.17 and +0.32. Short-term (30 days): currently negative (recent readings between -0.31 and -0.46, with extremes at -0.88…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos Tech

BTC, Liquidity Pools, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios

1. Liquidity Pools include: Binance spot ($5-10B daily), Coinbase spot ($1-3B), perpetuals from Binance, Bybit, OKX ($20-40B), CME Futures ($2-5B), US spot ETFs like IBIT and FBTC ($1-3B), and OTC/DP estimated at $2-5B. 2. Institutional flows show CTA trend-following algorithms are neutral with no large liquidation signals. ETF flows have slight net outflows recently,…

07/31/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Detailed view of the US 100 dollar bill showing the Treasury seal and printed text.

Economic studies Reports

Real Yields on US Treasuries Collapse Below 1.2 %

Since the end of 2021, the 10-year yield has risen from ~1.5% to a peak of ~5% in autumn 2023, then stabilized around 4.6%. With a CPI at 3.5%, the real rate is: r = i - π = 4.6% - 3.5% = 1.1% Osaic has already reduced its fixed-income allocation from 40% to…

Revaluation of official US gold, balance sheet monetization, and quantifiable implications

The US official gold reserves stand at 261,498,926 troy ounces (8,133.5 metric tons), valued at $42.2222 per ounce under the 1973 statute, totaling $11.041 billion. Market value at mid-July 2026 spot prices (~$4,050–4,130/oz) is approximately $1.06–1.08 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in July 2026 that all gold is accounted for, valuing over $1 trillion…

Decline of Sovereign Bonds as a Safe-Haven Asset and Rotation Toward Gold

Summary: Since 2021, the US bond market has experienced upward pressure on yields, with the stock-bond correlation turning positive. Several institutions (Morgan Stanley, Osaic, Sagard) have officially reduced their allocation to fixed income in favor of gold and real assets. This study models this regime change using a two-state HMM, GARCH volatility, and a Merton…

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…

07/30/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.

Economic studies Reports

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…

Chinese Restrictions on Paper Gold Trading

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The decision of several major Chinese banks (ICBC, Ping An, China Guangfa) to suspend precious metals trading services linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for individuals, by drastically raising margin requirements to 140%, is not a simple prudential adjustment. Analyzed through M. Theory 4.2 and the Steelldy 3.8 graph engine, this measure…

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Geopolitical Pause Eases Sovereign Selling Pressure

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…

French Sovereign Fragility Index. Critical breach of the 30-year OAT yield to ~4.73% on July 22, 2026

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The yield on the French 30-year OAT bond reached ~4.73% on July 22, 2026, the highest level since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Debt Crisis. This level is identified as a critical systemic threshold, crossing the 4.50-4.69% zone identified by GARCH-X Markov-switching and DSGE models calibrated on 2000-2026 data. The yield…

07/22/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac