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Tag: Markov-Switching model

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Black and white image of gold bars placed on scattered US dollar bills, symbolizing wealth.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Beyond the Bullion: Quantifying Gold’s Future Value in a Debt-Ridden World

The technical analysis posits a bullish outlook for gold, targeting $17,250/oz, underpinned by structural US fiscal dominance, accelerated de-dollarization, and a monetary re-evaluation of gold as an alternative reserve asset. As of June 13, 2026, US gross public debt stands at approximately $39.2 trillion, with debt held by the public at around $31.6 trillion,…
06/16/20260Comments

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Cryptos

Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio Hits Critical “Very Low Liquidity” Zone: A Precursor to Major Upside?

The Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio (SRR) has reached a critical "Very Low Liquidity" level in May 2026, mirroring major market bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2023. The SRR, calculated as realized absolute profit and loss divided by realized capitalization, indicates extreme sell-side exhaustion when below 0.001. Historically, such compressions have preceded significant price expansions:…
05/28/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Systemic Evaluation of the “Selective Credit Crunch” and Modeling of Bank Non-Contagion

Private Credit will not trigger a systemic global banking crisis like 2008, but acts as an extreme amplifier of sector volatility, generating a "sawtooth recession" in corporate credit with a structural rotation towards AI-Native. The analysis conducted by integrating the 7 quantitative layers (semantic NLP, macro DSGE, factor decomposition, Markov-switching regimes, quantum-classical portfolio optimization,…
04/10/20260Comments

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