Smoke billowing from industrial chimneys against a vibrant orange sunset sky in Gdańsk, Poland.

ESG/Fiscal Dimensions of Refiner Margin Squeeze: Carbon Pricing (Internal Shadow Prices) and Tax Loss Harvesting – TotalEnergies Case Study

1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030. Sensitivity…

3 jours ago0Comments

ByOleg Turceac

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…

mai 4, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Oil and Gas Infrastructure Impact. Recession Risks through H2 2026

A JP Morgan Commodities Research table listing specific oil and gas assets hit across the Middle East, including pipelines, terminals, ports, depots, and fields in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, and Oman. The table details drone strikes, missile attacks, and fires causing capacity outages, with examples like partial shutdowns at Saudi East-West pipeline, full disruptions…

avril 11, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac