Red Alert: A dovish Fed could trigger a $2 trillion “Unwind” in a few weeks

The amplification mechanism relies on the scissors effect between accommodative US monetary policy (Fed rate cuts of -25 to -50 bps towards 2026) and a tightening by the Bank of Japan (+25 to +75 bps). This divergence, exacerbated by a 10x leverage for hedge funds, leads to a compression of the carry trade spread, making…

11/25/20250Comments

ByOleg Turceac

The Yen Carry Trade: End of a Golden Era and a \$11.5 Billion Systemic Risk

The Japanese yen-based carry trade, historically profitable (35-40% ROI with 10x leverage), is mathematically broken by the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate normalization. The current rate differential (4.25% US vs 1.00% JPY) drops to 3.25% before costs and yen appreciation. If the BOJ raises rates by more than an additional 50 basis points or…

11/25/20250Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Dédollarisation, la grande réallocation monétaire

1. La thèse principale soutient que la dédollarisation est une transition structurelle de 10 à 20 ans, entraînant une réallocation massive des capitaux des actifs libellés en USD (Trésors, crédit) vers des actifs réels sans contrepartie (or, Bitcoin) et des infrastructures monétaires alternatives (mBridge, CBDC, stablecoins). 2. Pour 2025-2030, une allocation défensive prudente est…

11/03/20250Comments

ByOleg Turceac