Three macro variables dominate the pricing of five crypto assets today. The August CPI, released on September 11, is the last inflation print before the FOMC. A "hot" print raises perceived r* and compresses crypto duration, while a disinflationary print reopens the hold scenario.
The FOMC meeting on September 15-16 has hike probabilities of…
AI will lead to mass dumbing down of society. This is one of the most underestimated risks of AI transformation. The process of societal dumbing down was already rapid before LLMs, but now it could accelerate exponentially. Not progress, but degradation of society will speed up. This involves the gradual destruction of the very mechanism…
Thesis. While the market watches tokens, the largest financial data upgrade in history is concluding: after the end of the MT/MX coexistence period (November 22, 2025 — 97% of cross-border payments now in ISO 20022), 2027 mandates structured/hybrid addresses on SWIFT CBPR+ (SEPA on the 15th), with 65% of messages still non-compliant and 44% of…
According to Société Générale, the time has come to view gold optimistically again, as they observe a gradual recovery after months of correction. In a recent market assessment, analysts stated the precious metal looks attractive again, despite trimming their gold positions in the first half of the year. Gold recently rebounded to around $2,450 after…
Les trois banques russes Gazprombank, Alef Bank et Interprombank (Алеф-Банк, АКБ «ИНТЕРПРОМБАНК» и Газпромбанк) n’ont pas "volé" le milliard moldave, mais elles ont facilité techniquement le mécanisme de fraude en fournissant des dépôts overnight (dépôts à vue d’un jour, sans intérêt) aux trois banques moldaves impliquées (Banca de Economii, Unibank, Banca Socială), ce qui a…
Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI infrastructure. These are compounded by liquidity mismatches, sector concentration, and ties to insurers and pensions. Non-bank direct lending, via vehicles like BDCs, has heavily expanded into both areas, heightening vulnerability.
Two Primary AI-Related Risk…
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. QUANTITATIVE FINANCE
Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It is grasped through the counterparty dependency structure and the second derivative of infrastructure spending.
Our cross-analysis shows:
¤ The central risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but the existence of a…
X Money, operated by X Payments LLC, is not a bank but a licensed money transmitter. It partners with Cross River Bank for deposits and banking services. While many state licensing barriers are cleared, it faces ongoing scrutiny of its banking partner, political and consumer-protection pressures, and structural risks from its social-media integration and Banking-as-a-Service…
I. RÉSUMÉ EXÉCUTIF. FRAGMENTATION RÉGLEMENTAIRE GLOBALE
A. Configuration systémique
La fragmentation réglementaire mondiale persiste, car l'absence d'un cadre unifié G20, malgré les recommandations du FSB de 2023, engendre un arbitrage réglementaire transfrontalier massif et des risques systémiques.
Les données de la feuille de route FSB/FMI (publiée entre octobre 2024 et octobre 2025) confirment…
Les banques régionales US présentent des vulnérabilités structurelles critiques, notamment une exposition significative au JPY Carry Trade (jusqu'à 425 Md$) et d'importantes pertes latentes sur leur portefeuille HTM (580-680 Md$, soit 35-42% du capital Tier 1).
Leur dépendance à la liquidité de la Fed demeure élevée, malgré une utilisation accrue du SRF et une…
Analyse de marché