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Tag: Crack Spread

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Analyse de marché

Cartel collapse and depressive supply shock. The withdrawal of Saudi Arabia and the UAE of OPEC/OPEC+

The simultaneous withdrawal declaration of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ (April 28-29, 2026) constitutes the most severe institutional rupture in the oil market since 1985-1986. This study demonstrates that this exit is not a purely bearish signal but rather the prelude to a two-speed structural dislocation: …

avril 30, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché

Dislocation des marchés raffinés et paradoxe Brent/Gasoil

Le 1er avril 2026, un paradoxe frappe le marché énergétique européen : le prix du baril de Brent est sous les 102$/bbl (environ 98,65 $), alors que le gazole à la pompe en France atteint 2,243 €/L, un record historique. Cette observation, validée par la Théorie de la Mo 4.2, démontre une dislocation structurelle profonde…

avril 2, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché

Energy lockdown risk dynamics post US-Iran conflict

Multi-engine analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a supply shock of 20 Mb/d (20% of world consumption), has established a regime of "structural energy constraint." This regime is characterized by a high conditional probability of activating restrictive measures on mobility ("energy lockdown"), estimated at 81.3% for 03/31/26, according to…

avril 1, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac