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The Iran-United States war, triggered in Q1 2026, introduced a second-order exogenous shock to the gold market, destabilizing the strongest pillar of the decade-long bull run: central bank demand. The announcement of the suspension of gold sales by the Azerbaijani sovereign wealth fund (SOFAZ), forced sales by Turkey and Russia, and the contraction of…
1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing
TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030.
Sensitivity…
1.1 Minimum Effective Tax Rate of 15% and calculation of the top-up tax
Pillar Two of the OECD framework on international tax reform introduces a minimum effective tax rate of 15% applicable to the profits of multinational enterprises (MNEs) with consolidated revenue exceeding 750 million euros. This mechanism, formalized in the GloBE (Global Anti-Base Erosion)…
As of April 30, 2026, the Buffett Ratio (Wilshire 5000 / annualized nominal GDP) reached 227%, with a peak high of 232.6% in March. Paul Tudor Jones uses an expanded measure (total market capitalization / GDP) amounting to approximately 252%, incorporating foreign companies listed in the US and tokenized real assets. This ratio, adjusted for…
The drop in gold to $4,575 (the sharpest daily decline since 2020) does not invalidate the "Gold/Wheat = Twin Survival Assets" thesis. It represents a tactical decoupling induced by a sudden shift in monetary regime. Multi-engine analysis reveals the following sequence:
Monetary Shock: The Fed adopts an unexpectedly hawkish tone, pushing rate cuts to 2027.…
1. CASH POSITION ANALYSIS
Current Cash: $189B
% of Assets: 18% (vs 10% normal, 15.5% avg pré-crise)
Signal Strength: +16% above historical pre-crisis average
Historical Context:
├─ 2007 Pre-Crisis: $44B (15%) → 8 months to crisis, SPX -57%
├─ 2019 Q4 Pre-COVID: $128B (16%) → 4 months to crisis,…
Analyse de marché
Carbon Credit Market