1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing
TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030.
Sensitivity…
1.1 Minimum Effective Tax Rate of 15% and calculation of the top-up tax
Pillar Two of the OECD framework on international tax reform introduces a minimum effective tax rate of 15% applicable to the profits of multinational enterprises (MNEs) with consolidated revenue exceeding 750 million euros. This mechanism, formalized in the GloBE (Global Anti-Base Erosion)…
As of April 30, 2026, the Buffett Ratio (Wilshire 5000 / annualized nominal GDP) reached 227%, with a peak high of 232.6% in March. Paul Tudor Jones uses an expanded measure (total market capitalization / GDP) amounting to approximately 252%, incorporating foreign companies listed in the US and tokenized real assets. This ratio, adjusted for…
The drop in gold to $4,575 (the sharpest daily decline since 2020) does not invalidate the "Gold/Wheat = Twin Survival Assets" thesis. It represents a tactical decoupling induced by a sudden shift in monetary regime. Multi-engine analysis reveals the following sequence:
Monetary Shock: The Fed adopts an unexpectedly hawkish tone, pushing rate cuts to 2027.…
1. CASH POSITION ANALYSIS
Current Cash: $189B
% of Assets: 18% (vs 10% normal, 15.5% avg pré-crise)
Signal Strength: +16% above historical pre-crisis average
Historical Context:
├─ 2007 Pre-Crisis: $44B (15%) → 8 months to crisis, SPX -57%
├─ 2019 Q4 Pre-COVID: $128B (16%) → 4 months to crisis,…
Carbon Credit Market
Analyse de marché