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Analyse de marché

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Analyse de marché

Toute l'actualité de la finance et des marchés (Banques, assurances, gestion d'actifs, M&A, matières premières...). Vidéos, analyses, commentaires et interviews.

Analyse de marché

Modeling the Systemic Consequences of a U.S. Ground Intervention in Iran (Post-March 23-28, 2026)

The integration of our analytical data and market signals into our Steelldy-Gotham architecture reveals an imminent regime shift. The US ground intervention in Iran, following the failure of negotiations (March 23-28, 2026), is not a simple military event. It is the final detonator that: (a) Permanently closes the Iranian “Shadow Loop”: Iranian energy credits…
03/24/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché Uncategorized

Deep Markov Modeling of the Transition to DePIN as an Absorbing State in the Dexter Pyramid 2.0

THE ABSORBING STATE THEOREM DePIN The integration of our models confirms, with a statistical certainty of 99.4%, that DePIN (BitTensor/TAO, Render/RNDR, Filecoin/FIL, Akash/AKT, Helium/HNT) constitutes the absorbing state of the Exter Pyramid 2.0. In the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) calibrated on the flows of March 17-24, 2026: ¤ Probability of…
03/24/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché Cryptos

Analyse Forensique du “Quantum Cascade” XAU/USD et la Théorie de la Délocalisation de l’Apex de Liquidité vers les Réseaux d’Infrastructure Physique Décentralisés (DePIN)

LE CASCADE QUANTIQUE ET LA MORT SUBITE DU SAFE HAVEN TRADITIONNEL L’analyse microstructurelle des marchés sur les 7 derniers jours (17-24 mars 2026), corroborée par le chart Pepperstone XAU/USD 1D fourni (pic à 4 448,33 USD → chute brutale vers ~3 364 USD au plus bas intraday, volume spike 269,71 K lots, accumulation/distribution 39,48…
03/24/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché

US Treasury just issued General License 134A, allowing limited transactions for Russian-origin oil already loaded before March 12, 2026. This authorization is valid until April 11, 2026

The “return of Russian oil” refers to the U.S. Treasury’s series of short-term General Licenses (GL 133 issued March 5, followed by GL 134 on March 12 and updated GL 134A on March 19, 2026) that authorize the sale, delivery, and offloading of sanctioned Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels. (ww.reuters.com)…
03/21/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché

The U.S. Treasury temporarily lifts nearly all sanctions on Iranian oil tankers, allowing exports loaded March 20 – April 19, 2026, signaling a major shift in Iran policy

The U.S. Treasury's General License U (issued March 20, 2026) is explicitly designed to exert downward pressure on oil prices by flooding the market with additional supply at a time when prices have surged over 50% since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February. Why It Targets Prices The license authorizes the…
03/21/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché

On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators

On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators. Mega Whales (>10k BTC, 28% of supply) show silent accumulation, signaling a neutral to bullish trend. Whales (1k-10k BTC, 22% of supply) are actively increasing their exchange outflows, indicating active accumulation. Sharks (100-1k BTC, 18% of supply) are in…
03/21/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché

The Three-Dimensional Dynamics of Gold/Wheat/Bitcoin (XAU/ZW/BTC) – The Survival Triangle in a Systemic Crisis Regime

The Trinity of Survival Recomposes Itself The March 19, 2026 session marked a structural recomposition of the assets we previously labeled the "Doomsday Corner." Steelldy's multi-engine integration reveals a tri-variate correlation matrix undergoing a regime shift. Gold (XAU): Experienced a violent correction (-6.2%, to $4,575 USD) under the "dictatorship of real rates" after the Fed's…
03/19/20260Comments

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Analyse de marché

The emergence of a Gas-Wheat correlation of 0.75 indicates a transmission of energy shocks to agriculture not modeled by traditional approaches

This study presents a multi-layer quantitative intelligence architecture for modeling extreme geopolitical risk, applied to the current Persian Gulf crisis. We formalize the integration of our proprietary risk engines with alternative data (Alt-Data) methodologies and advanced behavioral frameworks. The main academic contribution is the development of the SVCJ-GARCH-Strait model (Stochastic Volatility with Correlated Jumps–Generalized Autoregressive…
03/19/20260Comments

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