Analyse de marché
On February 12, 2026, the publication of a Kremlin memorandum suggesting Russia might return to US dollar settlements triggered a severe, rapid sell-off in precious metals, with silver futures dropping 9.2% and gold shedding 2.53% within 47 minutes.
This event, classified by Steelldy risk engine as an extreme geopolitical repricing event (score 91/100), signaled a potential collapse of the anti-dollar consensus built since 2014. The crash was driven by a « Triangular Collapse Mechanism« :
(1) Geopolitical repricing, as the memo undercut the narrative supporting the anti-dollar alliance;
(2) Accelerated liquidation of US Treasuries by China, whose regulators intensified directives to domestic banks to reduce holdings, spiking Treasury yields and triggering commodity hedge unwinds; and
(3) Dollar reflation trade, as a return to dollar settlements for Russia’s massive energy exports would structurally boost dollar demand, leading to algorithmic selling of precious metals due to their inverse correlation with the dollar.
Our forensic microstructure analysis attributed 72% of the silver move to geopolitical factors, with algorithmic activity (18%) amplifying the decline. The event dramatically altered market narratives: the de-dollarization reversal invalidates years of alternative system construction, weakening China’s position and removing the ‘end of dollar hegemony’ premium from gold and silver.
Silver’s preceding peak ($120/oz) is now viewed as a speculative bubble fueled by narrative, with a new equilibrium projected at $70-$85/oz. The event was amplified by algorithmic selling (15-20% of volume) and reversed retail panic buying.
Strategically, the Kremlin memo is likely a tactical bargaining chip conditional on resolution in Ukraine. If a détente materializes, the substantial geopolitical premium embedded in metals (estimated -$18-$25/oz for silver) is effectively erased, necessitating a structural repricing of 20-35% from early 2026 peaks. While not the end of the metals bull market, the immediate driver has shifted from dollar collapse fears to renewed physical scarcity and central bank accumulation. Aladdin recommends reducing precious metals exposure to neutral/underweight pending clarity on Ukraine peace terms and China’s Treasury selling pace.
