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The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…
The Real Asset Shifting (RAS) module (www.steelldy-indices.com) focuses on tangible assets, notably cross-border real estate. However, intangible assets (patents, trademarks, software, know-how, databases, client lists) are historically the main channel for profit shifting in multinational groups. Unlike tangible assets, intangibles do not significantly benefit from the Substance-based Income Exclusion (SBIE), are highly sensitive to transfer…
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