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Tag: JPY Carry Trade

HomeAll PostsTag: JPY Carry Trade

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Monochrome image of stock market data on a screen, depicting financial information and trends.

Analyse de marché

Markets

Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Intervention Mechanisms of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) / Ministry of Finance (MoF)

Institutional and fundamental legal framework Unlike many central banks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has no autonomous decision-making power over foreign exchange intervention. This authority rests solely with the Minister of Finance under Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act. The BOJ acts only as a technical agent for the Ministry of Finance (MoF), with…

08/10/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Abstract view of a subway tunnel with motion blur and light streaks.

Markets

Global Systemic Convergence of the 7 Vectors (December 2025). Reassessment and Recalibration as of August 10, 2026

The original thesis from December 6-13, 2025, predicting a catastrophic systemic event driven by a Fed-BOJ shock and a $11.5 trillion carry trade unwind within 90 days, was not validated in its magnitude or timing. Observed reality shows USD/JPY peaked around 164 in late July 2026 after coordinated intervention, now near 158. The BOJ hiked…

08/10/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

Simulation of a contraction of % of the USDT monetary mass ($ -12B) and deleveraging cascade on BTC

In our STEEL software, USDT is modeled as the first-tier systemic collateral in decentralized finance. A 10% contraction ($12 billion USD) is a negative convexity shock. Input variables include an initial USDT supply of $120 billion, a contraction speed at T+5 days (exogenous shock like a JPY Carry Trade unwind), an LIR < 0.22 (market…

01/30/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

Mechanism of Transmission of the Japanese Bond Crisis to Digital Assets (BTC). Analysis of Financing Liquidity and the Impact of Stablecoins

An unprecedented channel of systemic risk is emerging between Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and cryptocurrencies. The rapid normalization of JGB rates leads to a sharp appreciation of the Yen (JPY), triggering a global "Margin Call." This situation is aggravated by the collapse of the JPY carry trade, the flight of liquidity from Japanese platforms, and…

Transmission du risque JPY Carry Trade vers les obligations zone Euro et les crypto-actifs

1. RÉSUMÉ EXÉCUTIF. CANAUX DE CONTAGION CRUCIAUX Un démantèlement désordonné du carry trade JPY (estimé entre 3 000 et 7 000 milliards de dollars) risque d'entraîner une propagation à travers plusieurs actifs par le biais de trois voies : 1) le canal des taux et du spread, avec un retour conduisant à des cessions d'obligations…

Vulnérabilités cachées : le spectre du carry trade et des pertes latentes menace les banques régionales américaines

Les banques régionales US présentent des vulnérabilités structurelles critiques, notamment une exposition significative au JPY Carry Trade (jusqu'à 425 Md$) et d'importantes pertes latentes sur leur portefeuille HTM (580-680 Md$, soit 35-42% du capital Tier 1). Leur dépendance à la liquidité de la Fed demeure élevée, malgré une utilisation accrue du SRF et une…

Alerte de tension sur le marché des pensions : 13,5 milliards de dollars injectés par la Fed, signe d’une fragmentation cachée. Le “Liquidity Cliff” approche.

I. SYNTHÈSE EXÉCUTIVE : LE DIAGNOSTIC D'UNE LIQUIDITÉ SQUEEZE TACTIQUE L'opération de repo Overnight (RPONTSYSAD) de $13,5 Milliards de dollars menée par la Federal Reserve (Fed) le 1er décembre 2025 n'est pas un événement anodin. Bien que la Fed qualifie ces opérations de routine pour maintenir le taux des fonds fédéraux dans sa fourchette…

12/02/20250Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Tag: JPY Carry Trade

Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Intervention Mechanisms of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) / Ministry of Finance (MoF)

Global Systemic Convergence of the 7 Vectors (December 2025). Reassessment and Recalibration as of August 10, 2026

Simulation of a contraction of % of the USDT monetary mass ($ -12B) and deleveraging cascade on BTC

Mechanism of Transmission of the Japanese Bond Crisis to Digital Assets (BTC). Analysis of Financing Liquidity and the Impact of Stablecoins

Transmission du risque JPY Carry Trade vers les obligations zone Euro et les crypto-actifs

Vulnérabilités cachées : le spectre du carry trade et des pertes latentes menace les banques régionales américaines

Alerte de tension sur le marché des pensions : 13,5 milliards de dollars injectés par la Fed, signe d’une fragmentation cachée. Le “Liquidity Cliff” approche.

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Webus International, société chinoise, lance un fonds de gestion de trésorerie d’entreprise de 300 millions de dollars en XRP