The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026. Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…