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Tag: Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)

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Retail Participation at Peak Valuations in IPOs: Negative Convexity, Herding Dynamics, and Predictive Power for Market Corrections – Empirical Evidence, Econometric Framework, and Implications for SpaceX IPO

Executive Summary High retail investor participation in IPOs at stretched valuations generates negative convexity in the broader equity market: initial positive gamma from FOMO-driven buying (short-term momentum) reverses into amplified downside convexity upon sentiment shift, due to herding, low information processing, and liquidity withdrawal. Historical data confirm that elevated retail flows in late-cycle IPO…

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