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Tag: French Sovereign Fragility Index (FSFI)

HomeAll PostsTag: French Sovereign Fragility Index (FSFI)
The French flag waves against a cloudy sky, mounted on a Parisian building.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

French Sovereign Fragility Index. Critical breach of the 30-year OAT yield to ~4.73% on July 22, 2026

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The yield on the French 30-year OAT bond reached ~4.73% on July 22, 2026, the highest level since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Debt Crisis. This level is identified as a critical systemic threshold, crossing the 4.50-4.69% zone identified by GARCH-X Markov-switching and DSGE models calibrated on 2000-2026 data. The yield…
07/22/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

French Debt Crosses the Rubicon: 30-Year OAT Yield Hits Phase Transition at 4.6926%

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…
07/09/20260Comments

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