Analyse de marché
Gold Is Moving Back to the Center of Finance
By Peter Reagan
Gold is reasserting itself in finance, moving from an « alternative asset » category to a core holding, driven by recent economic instability. Historically, institutional investors focused mainly on corporate profits and debt, viewing gold skeptically.
However, the pandemic-era lockdowns, subsequent inflation, and the significant underperformance of U.S. government debt (worst since 1787) eroded trust in traditional safe havens, leading global banks to recommend gold diversification (5%-15%). This shift correlated with gold reaching numerous all-time highs and record central bank buying between 2022 and 2024.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio now advocates for a 15% gold allocation, up from a previous 10% suggestion, citing two main concerns: frequent global crises (geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, bank collapses) and currency devaluation. The U.S. dollar has lost at least 22% of its purchasing power since 2020, increasing incentives for other nations to de-dollarize due to sanctions risk.
Furthermore, faster, untraceable options like cryptocurrency may be eroding the dollar’s appeal for international transactions. Dalio’s primary broad concern for the U.S. is stagflation. While acknowledging Dalio’s sharp macroeconomic insight, this source disagrees with his blanket recommendation of a 15% allocation for everyday Americans, stressing that asset allocation must be individualized.
For example, those focused purely on preservation might hold up to 50% in gold and silver, while others balancing risk might prefer the 10-15% range. The text concludes that while a universal percentage is wrong, holding zero gold is incorrect for everyone. Also noted is Tether’s significant gold bullion purchases and a severe 30-year squeeze on Indian gold supply.
Hide comments
