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1. MATRICE « LIQUIDITY HEAT-MAP » (75 k → 100 k) – MISE À JOUR PRIX 82 351 $
| Zone $ | Notional Longs | Notional Shorts | Gamma Exposure Δ | MM Hedge Flow | Proba 48h | Event Trigger |
| 75 000 | 50 M | 320 M | –22 M | 12 % | Stop-run daily low (proche) | |
| 76 800 | 90 M | 280 M | –18 M | 14 % | Micro rebound | |
| 78 500 | 450 M | 90 M | –31 M | 22 % | Max long squeeze | |
| 80 200 | 380 M | 70 M | –19 M | 16 % | Break → 82 k fast | |
| 82 000 | 220 M | 110 M | –7 M | 10 % | Smooth climb | |
| 82 351 | Current | Ref | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| 85 000 | 400 M | 120 M | +11 M | 8 % | Resistance flip | |
| 87 200 | 180 M | 140 M | +9 M | 6 % | Mid range | |
| 88 000 | 200 M | 160 M | +12 M | 5 % | Cleaned longs | |
| 90 100 | 90 M | 150 M | +21 M | 12 % | Short squeeze #1 | |
| 92 000 | 60 M | 175 M | +49 M | 18 % | Gamme squeeze | |
| 94 500 | 40 M | 120 M | +28 M | 9 % | After-burn | |
| 97 000 | 30 M | 300 M | +38 M | 7 % | Short squeeze #2 | |
| 100 000 | 20 M | 380 M | +45 M | 5 % | Psychological wall |
2. MICRO-STRUCTURE : ORDER-BOOK SNAP – 82 351 $
| Side | Cumulative 0.1 % | Iceberg 0.3 % | Latency arb. | Re-fill speed |
| Bids | 41 M$ | 115 M$ | 12 ms | 1.8 s |
| Asks | 39 M$ | 98 M$ | 11 ms | 2.1 s |
| Imbalance | +2 M$ (mild bid-heavy) | → upside bias 0.12 % next 5 min |
- Surface (0.1 %) : Bid-heavy → micro-support immédiat
- Profond (0.3 %) : Bid-heavy → structure de support solide
- Iceberg : Refill rapide côté bid → acheteurs institutionnels dissimulés
3. RISK MATRIX – PRIX 82 351 $ (48 h)
| Event | P | Impact | Hedge |
| Spot break xx.5 k | 30 % ↑ | –12 % open interest | Long x5 k put |
| Funding flip > +0.05 % | 45 % ↑ | Short squeeze +8 % | Reduce perp shorts |
| ETF outflow > 300 M$ | 15 % | –4 % spot | Short ETHE/BTC pair |
| x2 k daily close | 15 % ↓ | Gamma buy 400 M$ | Chase momentum |
| x00 k tag | 5 % | IV spike 120 % | Sell x00 k call wall |
Probabilités ajustées vs document :
- Break 78.5 K : 28 % → 30 % (crash actuel rapproche trigger).
- Funding flip : 35 % → 45 % (funding déjà –0.021 %, shorts overcrowded).
- 92 K break : 22 % → 15 % (sentiment baissier court-terme).
4. GAMMA EXPOSURE
| Strike | GEX Δ (MM) | Notional Calls | Notional Puts | Interpretation |
| 75 000 | –22 M | x8 K | x2 K | MM short gamma → buy spot on drop |
| 78 500 | –31 M | x5 K | x8 K | Max negative gamma → squeeze fuel |
| 85 000 | +11 M | x5 K | x2 K | MM long gamma → sell spot on rise |
| 92 000 | +49 M | x9 K | x9 K | Gamma wall → sell xx5 M on break |
| 100 000 | +45 M | x8 K | x6 K | Psychological ceiling → MM sell xx0 M |
Key Insight :
- Below 82 K : MM short gamma → […] (bullish reflex)
- Above 92 K : MM long gamma → […] (bearish reflex)
- 82-92 K : Gamma neutral → […]
