ETH/BTC est le prix relatif de deux systèmes distribués en concurrence. Ses déterminants principaux sont :
Prime de contrat intelligent : capitalisation sur l’écosystème DeFi et les dApps.
Concurrence des "ETH Killers" : Solana, Avalanche, Sui, Aptos, etc., qui érodent la part de marché d’Ethereum.
Mécanisme de destruction EIP‑1559 et frais de gaz : l’activité réseau alimente l’accumulation…
Cryptos
Toute l'actualité du monde des cryptos en France et (plateformes, cryptos, rachat, IA, acteurs, fondateurs). Vidéos, analyses, commentaires et interviews.
1.1 Adaptation of the Merton Model: Adjustment of the Probability of Default (PD) using the CCQI Index
The integration of the CCQI Index into credit risk models relies on adapting the structural framework of Merton (1974), where a borrower's Probability of Default (PD) is determined by the distance between the value of their assets and…
CCQI index and characterization of TCMs: Tracking Tokenization of RWAs and Carbon Credits
1.1 Methodology for the STEELLDY CCQI (Climate Credit Quality Index)
1.1.1 Definition and Objectives of the Index: Carbon Credit Quality Benchmark for the Voluntary Market
The Climate Credit Quality Index (CCQI), developed by STEELLDY, is a proprietary benchmark for the quality of…
(1) XRP — Settlement Layer and Liquidity Bridge
XRP serves as a neutral liquidity bridge between different fiat currencies and tokenized assets. The arrival of seven US spot XRP ETFs (approximately $1 billion in AUM) signals progressive institutionalization. Demand for XRP structurally stems from the volume of transactional flows, which creates continuous buying pressure…
The gradual shift of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) from a simple payment network to a true institutional settlement layer (RWA, tokenization, interbank cross-border settlements) is empirically observable.
J.P Morgan recently revealed its utilization of the XRPL.✅ Up next? 🙇♂️ Goldman Sachs and Citi.😏💨 https://t.co/nCu062uXxz — SMQKE (@SMQKEDQG) May 9, 2026
Quantitative Validation Elements …
Central Thesis: The integration of Coinglass Liquidation Map data, the 3D rising wedge pattern, and BTC/Stablecoins dominance reveals that BTC has climbed towards 81,800 USD based on 17.68 billion in vulnerable long leveraged positions below current levels. This configuration, superimposed on the geometry of the 3D rising wedge (mechanical target 67,500-70,000 USD in case of…
The Glassnode "Expansion, Breakdown, Stabilization" framework identifies a mature stabilization phase with volatility-adjusted support built around ~$74,000 and confluent resistance at $80,000–$83,000. This $78K–$83K zone constitutes the "Breakeven Battlefield" where the following overlap: (i) the STH Cost Basis at $78,700 (v5.0), (ii) the True Market Mean Price at ~$81,500 (v3.0), and (iii) the ETF Cost…
Visual Data
Red arrow: resistance cluster at $78,000–$80,000 (confluence of Realized Price, True Market Mean Price, Active Realized Price, Investor Price, STH Realized Price).
Green arrow: structural support cluster at $45,000–$50,000 (LTH Realized Price, CVDD, Delta Price, Average Price). The current price is positioned at the level of the red arrow, testing the…
The STH Cost Basis (STHCB), a key indicator for Short-Term Holders, has sharply declined from over $100,000 in January 2026 to approximately $78,700 in May 2026. The current spot price trades below this STHCB, which recently rejected an upward test. This decline signals ongoing capitulation among recent buyers, as "weak hands" sell into dips, resetting…
The distinction between a "trap" and a "trigger" in market analysis centers on their nature, observability, agents involved, and timing.
A trap is a static liquidity configuration, often visible in liquidity heatmaps as bid clusters (e.g., 76K–80K), indicating passive retail accumulation and suggesting resistance (high Kyle's Lambda). This configuration can take hours or days…