While the BoJ’s 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) keeps the yen carry transmission channel active but damped, real risks to BTC increasingly reside elsewhere: a maturing macro slowdown (US Q1 2026 GDP +1.6% annualized, Eurozone ~0.8% projected for 2026), volatile Bitcoin ETF flows (recent outflows amid cumulative ~$54B+ inflows since launch but…
Cryptos
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The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026.
Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) trades at approximately $65,400–66,000, down ~0.8% in the observed session, within a recent consolidation range post a relief bounce from sub-$60k lows earlier in June 2026. The provided chart confirms a 1H/4H structure with MA5/10/20 clustering near $66,200–66,300, recent rejection at $67,255 highs, and downside probe the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around…
This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings:
¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
CTAs, large systematic trend-following funds, can trigger massive redemptions and forced selling during correlated drawdowns in tech indices like the Nasdaq-100. This poses a liquidity risk for crypto portfolios exposed to tech beta. The study models BTC's exposure to the Nasdaq-100 using a time-varying beta derived from DCC-GARCH, empirically calibrated at 0.45. This indicates that…
Deep Microstructure Audit, CTA Liquidity Hunting & « Left-Side » Accumulation Detection @ 66,752 USD
The current BTC price is part of a deep liquidity hunt orchestrated by |...| algorithms to trigger the programmed liquidation of CTAs, who must purge 2.4 million Long contracts. This 66,752 USD price is not a fundamental discovery but a microstructure artifact. Institutional |...| are using D Pools and O orders to absorb CTA and…
The announcement of a partnership between the DTCC and the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) for asset tokenization on Stellar by mid-2027 represents a major institutional event for a public blockchain. This partnership could include equities, ETFs, and US Treasury bonds. However, a detailed analysis reveals several points:
1. Solid but not exclusive fundamental thesis:…
The Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio (SRR) has reached a critical "Very Low Liquidity" level in May 2026, mirroring major market bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2023. The SRR, calculated as realized absolute profit and loss divided by realized capitalization, indicates extreme sell-side exhaustion when below 0.001.
Historically, such compressions have preceded significant price expansions:…
Gold is considered a tactical long-term asset, but Bitcoin is currently undervalued. ReSolve Asset Management's portfolio manager, Richard Latimer, notes that gold's current price consolidation is expected after its early-year surge. Despite strategically remaining bullish on gold for its structural bull market, ReSolve has become tactically neutral in the short term, having taken profits and…
Hedge funds are increasingly adopting new digital currencies, primarily stablecoins, due to enhanced capital efficiency, regulatory clarity, and new yield-generating strategies. 1| Capital Efficiency Unlike traditional prime brokerage where collateral is largely immobilized, stablecoins acting as collateral can simultaneously secure derivative positions (perpetuals, options, futures) and generate yield from underlying assets like T-bills. This "working…