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Toute l’actualité économique et financière en France et dans le monde. Vidéos, analyses, interviews.

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Economie

Toute l'actualité économique et financière en France et dans le monde. Vidéos, analyses, interviews.

Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…
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Closure of the straits (Malacca/Hormuz). Systemic famine scenario 2026-2028 : in the French context.

Analysis of signals from Steelldy Engine G (maritime AIS), Steelldy Engine F (fertilizer blockages), Steelldy Engine M (semantic panic), and Steelldy Engine O (strait closure probabilities) shows exceptional statistical convergence. Michael Yon's analysis (Feb-Apr 2026) regarding prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure and imminent Malacca Strait threats is now a 78% market reality (95% CI: 72–84%),…
2 jours ago0Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Cartel collapse and depressive supply shock. The withdrawal of Saudi Arabia and the UAE of OPEC/OPEC+

The simultaneous withdrawal declaration of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ (April 28-29, 2026) constitutes the most severe institutional rupture in the oil market since 1985-1986. This study demonstrates that this exit is not a purely bearish signal but rather the prelude to a two-speed structural dislocation: …
4 jours ago0Comments

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Evaluation of Kepler Cheuvreux’s Asset Management Methodology (PE/Private Credit Integration via Ellipsis AM)

Kepler Cheuvreux has undergone a major strategic transformation since 2020. The integration of Ellipsis AM (Private Equity focused on Small/Mid-Caps) along with the approval of a Private Credit arm (Direct Lending/Structured Credit) of €12 Billion (AUM) currently underway (Run-Rate) represents one of the most successful examples of capital arbitrage and institutional leverage in Europe. …
avril 22, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Premium Shockwave: War-Risk Hikes Trigger Global Food and Fuel Shortages

Catherine Austin Fitts, in an interview clip, asserts that Lloyd's of London insurance decisions by the City of London effectively shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, creating global energy shortages and famine conditions rather than direct Iranian blockade. Amid March 2026 Iran conflict escalation, Lloyd's dramatically hiked war-risk premiums for Gulf tankers, causing…
avril 22, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Evaluation of the Dynamics of Strategic « Backfires » and Liquidity Contagion following the « True Due Diligence » of Banks (JPM, Goldman, Barclays)

Our multi-model analysis confirms a structural break in Private Credit (PC). The increase in rates on bank credit lines (warehouse lines) and downward revaluations of collateral by institutions like JPMorgan signal the end of the positive leverage multiplier effect ("Back Leverage"). This shift forces PC funds to face margin calls and liquidity dilution. The direct…
avril 18, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Analyse multi-facteurs de la dynamique des titres Carrefour (CA.PA). Découplage hydrocarbures vs risque systémique de Supply-Chain

Le marché observe une anomalie : le Gasoil baisse, ce qui devrait favoriser les marges des distributeurs, mais Carrefour sous-performe le CAC 40. La thèse centrale est que la baisse de Carrefour n'est pas liée aux prix de l'énergie mais à une discontinuité physique de la supply-chain (ruptures de stock), créant un risque de destruction…
avril 17, 20260Comments

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