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Toute l’actualité économique et financière en France et dans le monde. Vidéos, analyses, interviews.

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Economie

Toute l'actualité économique et financière en France et dans le monde. Vidéos, analyses, interviews.

A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
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Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
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Two gold bars rest on a pile of US dollar bills, symbolizing wealth and prosperity.
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Inflation Surge Crushes Gold & Silver Amidst Geopolitical Turbulence

Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This decline is attributed to a higher-than-expected May inflation report, rising Treasury yields, and escalating US-Iran tensions, which have overshadowed demand for safe-haven assets. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-on-year, with core…
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Silver vs. Gold: When and Why Silver Often Takes the Lead

Silver, a unique hybrid asset (monetary, industrial, speculative, linked to energy transition), exhibits higher volatility than gold. Its price is influenced by monetary demand, industrial demand, physical supply, and real interest rates. The primary driver, monetary demand, is linked to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation). When real rates are negative, the opportunity…
juin 2, 20260Comments

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A striking illumination of a gold-colored mineral against a dark background, showcasing its intricate details.
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Gold Prices Dip, But Fund Manager Sees Long-Term Rally Intact

Excerpt from the article by Neils Christensen The gold market has experienced a downturn, with prices falling below $4,500 and testing the critical 200-day moving average support. Despite this short-term selling pressure, attributed to inflation concerns and speculation of interest rate hikes, one fund manager, Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund, believes the long-term…
juin 2, 20260Comments

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Close-up of gold bars on a dark background, representing wealth and investment opportunities.
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Gold’s New Era: Strategist Predicts Long-Term Bull Market Fueled by Central Banks and Geopolitics

Doug Moglia, a strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, identifies gold as the anchor of a new commodity cycle, projecting its long-term bull market to persist despite recent volatility. Commodities are regaining traction for diversification as structural demand outpaces constrained supply. While broader commodity trends are shaped by electrification, AI, reshoring, energy security, and underinvestment,…
mai 28, 20260Comments

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Oil Reserves Plummet: JPMorgan Warns of Looming Economic Shock as Global Buffer Vanishes

Oil reserves are rapidly depleting, eroding the world's crucial buffer against supply shocks. A concerning JP Morgan chart, discussed by David Russell of GoldCore and featured in Bloomberg, illustrates the drastic decline in total discovered oil reserves, measured in billions of barrels. These reserves initially built up during the COVID-19 pandemic when demand plummeted,…
mai 18, 20260Comments

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Oil Market Faces Billion-Barrel Deficit Amid Strait Crisis, Reserves Struggle to Compensate

Estimated losses in the oil market reached 800 million barrels in March-April, growing to 1 billion barrels by mid-May, according to the IEA. This compares to a cumulative intervention of 400 million barrels, including the US. Before the conflict, global observable reserves in February stood at 8,185 million barrels; however, a significant portion is operational,…
mai 14, 20260Comments

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Inflation Shock Triggers Counterintuitive 1.5% Gold Plunge as Fed Hike Bets Soar

On Tuesday, May 12, 2026, gold prices dropped by 1.5% to $4,665 despite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. This counterintuitive movement occurs because high inflation data first influences the Federal Reserve's expectations, which then drives market reactions, often moving…
mai 13, 20260Comments

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