Executive Summary
Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
Executive Summary
Reduction in refined fuel demand (gasoline/diesel) is primarily driven by electrification (EV penetration ~25% global new sales 2025, displacing ~1.2 mb/d oil equivalent), efficiency gains (MPG improvements offsetting VMT growth), and behavioral shifts, not dominantly by 15-minute city models. The 15-minute city (proximity-based urbanism) and smart digitalized local economies contribute secondarily via…
Executive Summary
Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
Executive Summary
The posited Liquidity Trap manifests as a regime where elevated nominal asset prices (gold near recent highs, equities at stretched valuations) coincide with forced liquidations driven by margin calls, collateral constraints, and retail FOMO entry, without corresponding real-economy liquidity expansion. Under conditions of gold stabilizing below $4,150/oz and WTI/Brent oil around $88/bbl (current…
1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing
TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030.
Sensitivity…
Executive Summary
The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as:
3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3}
where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This decline is attributed to a higher-than-expected May inflation report, rising Treasury yields, and escalating US-Iran tensions, which have overshadowed demand for safe-haven assets. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-on-year, with core…
This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings:
¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
CTAs, large systematic trend-following funds, can trigger massive redemptions and forced selling during correlated drawdowns in tech indices like the Nasdaq-100. This poses a liquidity risk for crypto portfolios exposed to tech beta. The study models BTC's exposure to the Nasdaq-100 using a time-varying beta derived from DCC-GARCH, empirically calibrated at 0.45. This indicates that…
Deep Microstructure Audit, CTA Liquidity Hunting & « Left-Side » Accumulation Detection @ 66,752 USD
The current BTC price is part of a deep liquidity hunt orchestrated by |...| algorithms to trigger the programmed liquidation of CTAs, who must purge 2.4 million Long contracts. This 66,752 USD price is not a fundamental discovery but a microstructure artifact. Institutional |...| are using D Pools and O orders to absorb CTA and…
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Décarbonisation