The original thesis from December 6-13, 2025, predicting a catastrophic systemic event driven by a Fed-BOJ shock and a $11.5 trillion carry trade unwind within 90 days, was not validated in its magnitude or timing. Observed reality shows USD/JPY peaked around 164 in late July 2026 after coordinated intervention, now near 158. The BOJ hiked…
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SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…
This morning, the CCQI (Climate Change Quality Index) stands at 82.98, reflecting relative stability in the quality of climate-related assets. At the same time, the price of EUAs (European Union Allowances) is at €79.01, showing a technical signal of -2.33, which indicates significant downward pressure on this market. This trend is observed while six carbon…
Revenue decomposition and growth dynamics for Q2 FY26
Consolidated revenue reached 7,814, representing a 91.94% year-over-year increase from 4,071. The total revenue growth of 3,743 is driven by AI compute capacity rental (approx. +1,880, 50.2% of the increase), Starlink Connectivity (approx. +1,700, 45.4%), and Space Launch & other (residual +163). Key margins for Q2 FY26:…
Executive Summary
Copper ("Dr. Copper") remains a useful leading indicator of global industrial activity due to its ubiquitous use (power grids, construction, automotive, electronics, data centers). Futures are currently trading above $6.50/lb (COMEX), up about 30% year-over-year, and are holding above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The metal formed a trough before equity markets…
The ETH/BTC ratio currently stands at approximately 0.0292–0.0293 (early August 2026), meaning one Ethereum is worth about 2.92–2.93% of one Bitcoin. Recent historical context (2025-2026): - Local peak: 0.0421 (August 24, 2025) - Cycle low: 0.02578 (June 6, 2026), down 38.8% from peak - Current level: ≈0.0292 (August 4, 2026), up 13–14% from the low…
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is structurally high and stable, typically ranging between +0.80 and +0.90 across various time horizons, with 30-day figures around +0.88 and one-year values between +0.82 and +0.91. This relationship is markedly different from the BTC-Gold correlation, which averages only about +0.10 to +0.13 and can sometimes be…
The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD) remains weak and unstable over the long term, making them an excellent diversification pair. Long-term (since 2015/3-5 years): average correlation ≈ +0.10 to +0.13. Over one year: typically between -0.17 and +0.32. Short-term (30 days): currently negative (recent readings between -0.31 and -0.46, with extremes at -0.88…
1. Liquidity Pools include: Binance spot ($5-10B daily), Coinbase spot ($1-3B), perpetuals from Binance, Bybit, OKX ($20-40B), CME Futures ($2-5B), US spot ETFs like IBIT and FBTC ($1-3B), and OTC/DP estimated at $2-5B.
2. Institutional flows show CTA trend-following algorithms are neutral with no large liquidation signals. ETF flows have slight net outflows recently,…
Analyse de marché
Carbon Credit Market