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Private credit funds face elevated risks in 2026 from two distinct but overlapping AI-related channels
Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI infrastructure. These are compounded by liquidity mismatches, sector concentration, and ties to insurers and pensions. Non-bank direct lending, via vehicles like BDCs, has heavily expanded into both areas, heightening vulnerability. Two Primary AI-Related Risk…
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SPV (special purpose vehicle) off-balance-sheet structures are a core financing tool in the AI data-center buildout
They allow hyperscalers to expand capacity rapidly while keeping the bulk of associated debt off their consolidated balance sheets, converting what would be large capital expenditures into multi-year operating leases or offtake commitments. This creates meaningful “shadow” leverage and interconnected risks. How the Structures Typically Work A dedicated vehicle (SPV, joint venture, or variable…
SSSI. The quantitative and microstructural architecture of stablecoin risk
Executive Summary With over $315 billion in daily trading volume, stablecoins have become the systemic plumbing of programmable finance. Yet, the Basel Committee (BIS) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) highlight a critical flaw: the lack of quantitative tools capable of measuring counterparty risk in real time. Traditional approaches rely on static snapshots (monthly attestations)…
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How Circular Financing in AI Creates Hidden Risks Beneath a Boom
Circular financing in the AI sector refers to a tightly interlinked system of equity investments, compute commitments, guarantees, and off-balance-sheet structures among chipmakers, hyperscalers, AI labs, and data-center operators. Money and obligations circulate among a small group of counterparties, accelerating infrastructure buildout while amplifying downside risks if end-user monetization falls short. How It Works.…
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BIS Warns: AI Spending Spree Echoes Past Market Manias and Recessions
AI bubble risks are elevated as of mid-to-late 2026, driven by an unprecedented capital expenditure boom outpacing near-term monetization, high valuations, circular financing, and competitive pressure from low-cost Chinese open models. Official warnings from institutions like the Bank for International Settlements highlight parallels to historical overinvestment cycles, while real technological progress and strong current revenues…
Crypto Short Squeeze
Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long…
ScoreGex. De l’AVM local à l’oracle de rente institutionnel
"L'immobilier tokenisé est le segment le plus difficile à mesurer", c'est exactement le vide que ScoreGex peut remplir. Le marché RWA tokenisé a atteint 38,2 Md USD de valeur distribuée on-chain pour 345,3 Md USD d'actifs sous-jacents référencés. L'immobilier tokenisé représente moins de 6 % du total (~2 Md USD), alors que l'immobilier mondial pèse ~450 000 Md USD. Cette asymétrie n'est…