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The Five Pillars Driving a Costly US-Iran War of Attrition Through 2027
The 2026 US-Iran conflict will evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, with asymmetric consequences unfavorable to US allies and negative electoral implications for the Trump administration in the November 2026 midterms. Five structural pillars converge: 1. Economic Asymmetry of Attrition: Unfavorable cost-effectiveness ratios for the defender (60:1 to 5,000:1) create a spiral of exhaustion…
54 minutes ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Debt, Deficits, and Dollar Debasement Fueling Gold’s Bull Market
In a podcast discussion, Mike Maharrey of Money Metals interviewed Brian Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, regarding factors influencing the gold and silver markets. Lundin argued that long-term monetary trends, rather than short-term geopolitical events, fundamentally drive metal prices. While global conflicts like tensions involving Iran caused brief spikes in gold prices…
22 heures ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Capital Flight from the Emirates to Stablecoins – The « Digital Safe Haven » Phenomenon in the Context of Geopolitical Crisis
The integrated analysis of the Steelldy Risk Engine and Steelldy Gotham confirms that the USDC stablecoin has become the preferred vehicle for massive capital flight from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to three critical factors: the real estate collapse (a 31% drop), operational failures of local banks, and the regulatory superiority of USDC over…
1 jour ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Private Credit Risk Assessment and Liquidity Contagion Dynamics
Morgan Stanley (MS) is experiencing a severe liquidity crisis in its Direct Lending segment. This pressure stems from three systemic factors: (i) massive redemptions by Business Development Companies (BDCs), (ii) rapid devaluation of underlying tech assets (notably due to AI disruption), and (iii) margin compression from falling benchmark rates. We anticipate a “Capital Exodus” similar…
4 jours ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
The US Treasury announcement on 03/13/2026 temporarily lifts restrictions on Russian oil
The US Treasury issued a temporary waiver on restrictions for certain stranded Russian oil shipments, announced around March 12-13, 2026, to address global supply disruptions amid escalating tensions with Iran. This 30-day exemption allows countries to purchase and transport Russian crude and petroleum products that were loaded onto ships as of March 12, 2026, with…
mars 13, 20260Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Return of Russian oil. Systemic inversion of hydrocarbon flows (Russia–EU). Collapse of the risk premium and gravitation of liquidity clusters.
Europe has hit a mathematical wall: the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 5 to 7 million barrels per day (b/d) from the market. Replacement by American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cannot cover this deficit due to the physical limits of regasification capacities. Under these conditions, the return of Russian oil and gas…
mars 12, 20260Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Liste des exploitations pétrolières & gazières fermées dans les pays du Golf (statut : shut-in / offline)
I. Émirat du Qatar Le Qatar, dépendant à 100% du détroit d'Ormuz pour son exportation de GNL, est le premier pays à avoir subi une saturation de son stockage, entraînant un arrêt forcé de l'extraction. Exploitation / infrastructureTypeCapacité (Production/Jour)Statut (10 Mars 2026)Raison de la fermeture (analyse Mosaic)North Field East & WestGaz (Offshore)~1,400 Mboe/jCritical Shut-In…
mars 10, 20260Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Diagnostic de convergence du Brent vers le seuil de 85,00 USD. Analyse de la backwardation extrême et de l’équilibre de long terme (horizon 12M).
1. Modélisation quantitative de la crise Ormuz Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse]Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse] Notre modèle quantitatif de la crise de l'Hormuz simule la dynamique de choc d'offre avec une formule adaptant le pic de Hubbert, où Q 0 est le flux normal (21.5 Mb/j), t shock le début de crise (2 mars 2026), sigma shock la vitesse de disruption…
mars 9, 20260Comments