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Intangible Asset Shifting (IAS) Module
The Real Asset Shifting (RAS) module (www.steelldy-indices.com) focuses on tangible assets, notably cross-border real estate. However, intangible assets (patents, trademarks, software, know-how, databases, client lists) are historically the main channel for profit shifting in multinational groups. Unlike tangible assets, intangibles do not significantly benefit from the Substance-based Income Exclusion (SBIE), are highly sensitive to transfer…
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Systèmes de Ciblage Algorithmique de la DGFiP et Stratégie de Détection
L’administration fiscale française a engagé une mutation systémique de son contrôle fiscal via le projet PILAT (Pilotage et Analyse du Contrôle) et l’outil GALAXIE, qui constituent une infrastructure algorithmique de ciblage massif. Ces outils transforment l’ensemble des données fiscales, patrimoniales et relationnelles en un score de risque attribué à chaque contribuable. Le projet PILAT, lancé…
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How High-Value Properties Slash Pillar Two Top-Up Tax Under SBIE Rules
The Substance-based Income Exclusion (SBIE) is a carve-out mechanism under Pillar Two (GloBE) that excludes part of a jurisdiction's GloBE Income before calculating top-up tax, recognizing real economic substance. Its formula for 2022 rules with 2024-2026 guidance is 5% of eligible payroll plus 5% of tangible assets' carrying value. Payroll includes eligible employee expenses,…
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Gold Dips Below $4,000 on Fed Hawkishness, but Heraeus Sees Support from Easing Inflation Expectation
According to precious metals market analysts at Heraeus, gold and silver prices are expected to rise soon due to declining oil prices, which ease inflation expectations and reduce bond yields, while developments in the Pacific region suggest a potential shift of the gold market's center of gravity to the East. In their latest review, analysts…
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Continued rate hikes. ECB towards 3.75%. Fed towards 5.75% by end of 2026
These projections come from a complete hybrid Monte Carlo simulation (incorporating coupled stochastic processes, embedded HMM regime-switching, an affine term structure for rates, and Poisson jumps for geopolitical shocks), calibrated on Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 data (backtests 1971-2026), ECB staff projections from June 2026, and current macro flows (Bund 10Y ≈ 2.86-2.90%, ECB deposit rate…