Crypto Short Squeeze

Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long leverage. The MVRV Z-Score at 2.8 shows moderate overheating but not yet extreme. The primary catalyst is the US Treasury’s announcement of expanded long-term bond purchases, easing liquidity conditions, coupled with Trump’s push for the Clarity Act on crypto market structure. The short squeeze was amplified by concentrated shorts, with over 70% of positions on some exchanges. The TVP-VAR model shows BTC’s dynamic correlation with DXY dropped from -0.72 to -0.38 in 48 hours, indicating a bullish decoupling where BTC outperforms despite a stable dollar.

Polymarket’s probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 rose to 62% from 45% a week ago, contributing to the move. Ethereum reached $2,390-$2,400, up 4-5% in 24 hours and 25% for the week. On-chain data shows net EMT inflows of $340 million over 7 days, with a negative exchange netflow ratio indicating accumulation. DPs like FalconX and Kraken OTC recorded ETH purchase blocks exceeding 50,000 units, suggesting silent institutional accumulation.