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Cryptos
The construction of a conditional hedge for Bitcoin (BTC) against systemic risks from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs)
CTAs, large systematic trend-following funds, can trigger massive redemptions and forced selling during correlated drawdowns in tech indices like the Nasdaq-100. This poses a liquidity risk for crypto portfolios exposed to tech beta. The study models BTC's exposure to the Nasdaq-100 using a time-varying beta derived from DCC-GARCH, empirically calibrated at 0.45. This indicates that…
19 heures ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Silver vs. Gold: When and Why Silver Often Takes the Lead
Silver, a unique hybrid asset (monetary, industrial, speculative, linked to energy transition), exhibits higher volatility than gold. Its price is influenced by monetary demand, industrial demand, physical supply, and real interest rates. The primary driver, monetary demand, is linked to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation). When real rates are negative, the opportunity…
3 jours ago0Comments
Cryptos
Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio Hits Critical « Very Low Liquidity » Zone: A Precursor to Major Upside?
The Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio (SRR) has reached a critical "Very Low Liquidity" level in May 2026, mirroring major market bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2023. The SRR, calculated as realized absolute profit and loss divided by realized capitalization, indicates extreme sell-side exhaustion when below 0.001. Historically, such compressions have preceded significant price expansions:…
mai 28, 20260Comments
Close-up of gold bars on a dark background, representing wealth and investment opportunities.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Gold’s New Era: Strategist Predicts Long-Term Bull Market Fueled by Central Banks and Geopolitics
Doug Moglia, a strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, identifies gold as the anchor of a new commodity cycle, projecting its long-term bull market to persist despite recent volatility. Commodities are regaining traction for diversification as structural demand outpaces constrained supply. While broader commodity trends are shaped by electrification, AI, reshoring, energy security, and underinvestment,…
mai 28, 20260Comments