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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
The U.S. Treasury temporarily lifts nearly all sanctions on Iranian oil tankers, allowing exports loaded March 20 – April 19, 2026, signaling a major shift in Iran policy
The U.S. Treasury's General License U (issued March 20, 2026) is explicitly designed to exert downward pressure on oil prices by flooding the market with additional supply at a time when prices have surged over 50% since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February. Why It Targets Prices The license authorizes the…
2 jours ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators
On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators. Mega Whales (>10k BTC, 28% of supply) show silent accumulation, signaling a neutral to bullish trend. Whales (1k-10k BTC, 22% of supply) are actively increasing their exchange outflows, indicating active accumulation. Sharks (100-1k BTC, 18% of supply) are in…
3 jours ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
The Three-Dimensional Dynamics of Gold/Wheat/Bitcoin (XAU/ZW/BTC) – The Survival Triangle in a Systemic Crisis Regime
The Trinity of Survival Recomposes Itself The March 19, 2026 session marked a structural recomposition of the assets we previously labeled the "Doomsday Corner." Steelldy's multi-engine integration reveals a tri-variate correlation matrix undergoing a regime shift. Gold (XAU): Experienced a violent correction (-6.2%, to $4,575 USD) under the "dictatorship of real rates" after the Fed's…
4 jours ago0Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
The emergence of a Gas-Wheat correlation of 0.75 indicates a transmission of energy shocks to agriculture not modeled by traditional approaches
This study presents a multi-layer quantitative intelligence architecture for modeling extreme geopolitical risk, applied to the current Persian Gulf crisis. We formalize the integration of our proprietary risk engines with alternative data (Alt-Data) methodologies and advanced behavioral frameworks. The main academic contribution is the development of the SVCJ-GARCH-Strait model (Stochastic Volatility with Correlated Jumps–Generalized Autoregressive…
5 jours ago0Comments
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The Five Pillars Driving a Costly US-Iran War of Attrition Through 2027
The 2026 US-Iran conflict will evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, with asymmetric consequences unfavorable to US allies and negative electoral implications for the Trump administration in the November 2026 midterms. Five structural pillars converge: 1. Economic Asymmetry of Attrition: Unfavorable cost-effectiveness ratios for the defender (60:1 to 5,000:1) create a spiral of exhaustion…
mars 18, 20260Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Debt, Deficits, and Dollar Debasement Fueling Gold’s Bull Market
In a podcast discussion, Mike Maharrey of Money Metals interviewed Brian Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, regarding factors influencing the gold and silver markets. Lundin argued that long-term monetary trends, rather than short-term geopolitical events, fundamentally drive metal prices. While global conflicts like tensions involving Iran caused brief spikes in gold prices…
mars 17, 20260Comments
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché
Capital Flight from the Emirates to Stablecoins – The « Digital Safe Haven » Phenomenon in the Context of Geopolitical Crisis
The integrated analysis of the Steelldy Risk Engine and Steelldy Gotham confirms that the USDC stablecoin has become the preferred vehicle for massive capital flight from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to three critical factors: the real estate collapse (a 31% drop), operational failures of local banks, and the regulatory superiority of USDC over…
mars 17, 20260Comments