US Gold Revaluation Odds Surge Above 50% as Debt Market Pressure Mounts

Ronnie Stöferle, managing partner at Incrementum AG and co-author of the annual report “In Gold We Trust,” has raised his estimate of the probability of a revaluation of US gold reserves from 10–15% to more than 50%.

In an interview with Maggie Lake on October 7, 2026, he linked this possibility to pressure on the sovereign bond markets of the United States, France, Germany, and Japan, rising yields, and declining investor confidence amid large budget deficits. In his view, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s interventions in the yen and bond markets could precede more sweeping measures before the midterm elections.

The United States holds approximately 261.5 million ounces of gold, valued at $42.22 per ounce, a price set by Congress in 1973. This corresponds to a book value of about $11 billion, whereas at a market price of $4,166 per ounce, the reserves are worth more than $1 trillion. According to a 2025 Federal Reserve analytical note, five countries have revalued their gold reserves over the past 30 years, including Italy in 2002 and South Africa in 2024; revaluing US gold at market prices could generate income equivalent to about 3% of GDP.

In February 2025, Bessent stated his intention to monetize some of the assets on the US balance sheet and mentioned the possibility of a new “Bretton Woods moment.” However, he later denied that he had been referring to a gold revaluation, reiterating this position in July 2026. Stöferle believes that any potential plans could be announced in advance through advisers and officials to reduce political risks: a revaluation amid low confidence could be perceived as a sign of desperation, especially ahead of elections. He also believes that what is happening goes beyond a normal gold market cycle and may reflect the remonetization of gold. Central banks purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually in 2022–2024, while purchases fell to 863 tonnes in 2025; a comparable level is expected in 2026. These volumes still significantly exceed the annual average of 473 tonnes recorded in 2010–2021, and some countries are repatriating gold held abroad.

Although gold may appear overvalued following its recent rise according to traditional valuation methods, Stöferle considers it undervalued when taking the growth of global monetary aggregates into account. In his view, discussions of revaluation reflect gold’s enduring role in the monetary system.