Hedge

Private credit funds face elevated risks in 2026 from two distinct but overlapping AI-related channels

Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI…

2 days ago

The correlation of AI in the credit architecture

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. QUANTITATIVE FINANCE Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It is…

2 days ago

Analysis of regulatory obstacles regarding X Money

X Money, operated by X Payments LLC, is not a bank but a licensed money transmitter. It partners with Cross…

4 days ago

137 Countries, One Question. Measuring the CBDC Race Before the Settlement Reset

Central bank digital currencies have a communication problem. Every central bank publishes pilots, speeches and consultation papers, an endless stream…

5 days ago

SpaceX (SPCX). Probable Correction vs. Long-Term Trajectory

SpaceX (SPCX) faces a probable short-term correction of ≥30% (62-78% probability) from current levels (~$141-146), driven by negative convexity, retail…

6 days ago

Tokenized Municipal Micro-Bonds

Tokenized Municipal Micro-Bonds. We use the XRPL infrastructure to issue tokenized bonds funded by urban tolls… and local property taxes…

1 week ago

Why Gold’s Low Sharpe Ratio Masks Its True Value as a Strategic Tail-Risk Hedge

Gold (Sharpe 0.4-0.7, Volatility 12-15%) acts as a reserve asset, inversely correlated with the DXY. Its low Sharpe ratio is…

1 week ago

Gold vs. Bonds: As Central Banks Hike Rates, Investors Ditch the Yellow Metal for Yield

Gold is currently weakening despite inflation, due to several key factors. In May, Germany’s inflation rate was surprisingly moderate at…

2 months ago

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread}…

2 months ago

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ)…

3 months ago