On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators

On-chain and behavioral analysis focuses on investor cohorts, modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models, and key indicators.

Mega Whales (>10k BTC, 28% of supply) show silent accumulation, signaling a neutral to bullish trend.
Whales (1k-10k BTC, 22% of supply) are actively increasing their exchange outflows, indicating active accumulation.
Sharks (100-1k BTC, 18% of supply) are in a neutral consolidation phase, while Retail (<100 BTC, 32% of supply) is gradually accumulating, reflecting positive sentiment.
A notable Mosaic Signal comes from Whales, whose exchange outflows increased by 18% in 30 days, interpreted as institutional accumulation typical of pre-markup phases (Wyckoff Phase D).
Regarding on-chain indicators (as of 03/21/26): the MVRV Z-Score is at 2.4, signaling a value zone (overheating threshold being >3.0).
The NUPL stands at 0.62, indicating a conviction phase (euphoria threshold being >0.75).
The SOPR is at 1.08, suggesting healthy consolidation (profit-taking threshold being >1.10).
30-day exchange outflows show an increase of +18%, which is a bullish signal (extreme accumulation threshold being >+25%).
The SSR is at 4.2, implying relative buying power (buying power is high if <3.5).
Finally, the perpetual Funding Rate is 0.008%, remaining neutral (overheating threshold being >0.02%).

Its growing correlation with gold under stress conditions (from 0.23 to 0.67), its progressive decoupling from the Nasdaq (from 0.68 to 0.45), and its Safe Haven behavior in the face of the VIX (positive correlation under stress) are the empirical evidence of this transformation (…systemic numerical value).