Hamza Lemssouguer, 35, is shaking up the London finance scene with his big short bets

Hamza Lemssouguer‘s Arini Capital fund, launched in 2022 with $1.3 billion and reaching $20 billion in assets under management, is highlighted for its focus on European distressed debt and high-yield credit refinancing for companies like Altice. Arini closed its flagship fund at $4 billion to maintain performance and is expanding into CLOs and private credit. Its highly leveraged strategy has generated high returns (~25% in 2023, ~20% in 2024), outperforming the average for credit funds, but raises concerns about its vulnerability should bets on debt reverse. Approximately 60% of the funds come from North American investors.

The major concern regarding Arini Capital, despite its excellent performance (+25% in 2023, +20% in 2024), lies in its intensive use of leverage in its strategy focused on European distressed and high-yield debt. This approach, utilizing techniques like Total Return Swaps to amplify exposure (often 3x to 8x) on concentrated bets (examples cited: Altice, Very Group), is extremely vulnerable to a market downturn. If credit spreads widen or defaults increase, the mechanical amplification of losses rapidly erodes the Net Asset Value (NAV). The strategy faces several risks specific to the European market: the low liquidity of distressed assets, which can make margin calls potentially dangerous and may force fire sales. Furthermore, the concentration of positions in the same companies exposes the fund to correlation risk. About 60% of capital comes from North American investors, who can redeem their funds quickly (quarterly redemptions), increasing liquidity pressure on a fund whose capacity is already limited ($4 billion for the main fund).

In essence, the exceptional performance relies on a strong directional bet dependent on a favorable credit environment. Critics argue that if credit risk materializes, the leverage transforms a manageable decline into a swift catastrophe, a typical situation for heavily committed credit strategies.

Arini Capital has generated remarkable alpha (25% in 2023, 20% in 2024) by exploiting the European « distress premium » through extreme concentration and high structural leverage (4x to 8x via TRS/Repo).

Our analysis, however, reveals negative asymmetrical convexity: the strategy depends on the continuity of liquidity and the success of restructurings. An exogenous shock (rates, supply chain, systemic default) combined with [concentration, leverage, Illiquidity] exposes the NAV to an extinction risk far higher than peers. This alpha is in reality a sale of options on volatility and liquidity.

Risk modeling shows that leverage L strongly amplifies the variance of returns on « distressed » assets, whose distribution follows a heavy-tailed law. A 10% drop in the asset with L=5 causes a 50% loss of capital, triggering « Gate » and « Side Pocket » clauses.

The Altice case study shows that debt complexity and legal « drop-down » risk can impose a severe « haircut« , multiplied by the 5x leverage from TRS, resulting in a 50% loss on the trade for a 10-point price decline.

For Very Group (private debt), the « MtoM » valuation (Level 3) is illusory; a closing of the exit market would cause the real value to plummet. If Repo leverage is applied to this illiquid debt, a credit downgrade drains the fund’s liquidity.

Finally, 60% of capital from US investors subject to strict VaR makes the fund vulnerable to redemptions. A 5% drop in NAV could trigger Redemptions that the fund must stop using « Gates » and « Side Pockets, » destroying its reputation and freezing capital. The strategy is a sale of asymmetry: capped upside potential, downside potential amplified by leverage. Illiquidity serves as hidden leverage. The failure of Arini (€20 billion) would lead to a systemic feedback loop on European credit.