De Facto Tolls Solidify: Iran Moves to Formalize Strait of Hormuz Fees and Transit Bans

The Brent oil market shows an extreme divergence between the paper price (futures contracts) at $109 and the physical price (spot) at $141, a $32 gap reflecting a strong « backwardation. » Normally, future prices are higher than spot prices (contango) due to storage costs; this inversion signals an immediate scarcity of physical oil. The $141 price reflects the urgent need of refiners for immediate delivery, while the $109 price for deferred delivery in June reflects the expectation that the situation will improve by then. However, resolving geopolitical and logistical problems will take longer. The major disruption stems from the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, which is heavily impacted by the Iran-Israel/US conflict. Iran has imposed a toll since March 31, 2026, taxing « friendly » ships and blocking or attacking others. Logistics are also critical: the arrival of the last major tanker expected on April 11th will be followed by a long interruption of loadings until at least mid-May. Insurance premiums have surged, and ships are taking longer routes via the Cape of Good Hope. This immediate physical crisis means that consensus estimates (banks and IEA) predicting a quick return to $80-$110 underestimate the severity of the situation. The physical market price of $141 indicates that the market is already in shortage. If the situation does not resolve quickly, Brent could easily reach $150-200 in the coming months, with the physical price already being the highest since 2008. In essence, the paper market is optimistic about a quick resolution, whereas the physical market reflects a real and potentially lasting shortage due to geopolitical and logistical shocks in the Middle East.

On March 31, 2026, the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission approved a « Strait of Hormuz Management Plan. » This plan outlines security, navigation, and environmental protection measures, the establishment of a formal toll structure for ships transiting the strait, and a ban on passage for vessels linked to the United States or Israel. Although the official text stipulates payments in Iranian Rials, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is already imposing a de facto toll on ships considered « friendly » (China, India, etc.), with payments made in Chinese Yuan or cryptocurrencies/stablecoins, amounting to approximately $1 per barrel. At least two ships have reportedly already paid in Yuan. It is important to note that this is not yet a definitive law: the bill must still be voted on in plenary session, examined by the Guardian Council, and signed by the President to enter into force. Media reports indicate that this commission approval formalizes a mechanism already in place since mid-March, strengthening pressure on oil flows and accelerating the de-dollarization of energy trade.