Middle East

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread}…

6 heures ago

UBS Cuts Gold Price Target But Remains Bullish on Long-Term Drivers

UBS has lowered its 2026 gold price target to $5,500 from $5,900, citing higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.…

2 semaines ago

Oil Market Faces Billion-Barrel Deficit Amid Strait Crisis, Reserves Struggle to Compensate

Estimated losses in the oil market reached 800 million barrels in March-April, growing to 1 billion barrels by mid-May, according…

4 semaines ago

Gold ETFs See Strong Inflows Driven by European and Asian Demand Amid Inflation Fears

Global gold ETFs registered inflows despite inflationary risks, with gold prices hovering near 4,700 per ounce at the start of…

4 semaines ago

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous…

1 mois ago

Hormuz Truce Fails to Quell Fuel Fears: IATA Warns of Months-Long Supply Snag

https://twitter.com/AlmaANET25/status/2041782097908789395 IATA Director General Willie Walsh warning that jet fuel supply restoration in the Middle East will require months even…

2 mois ago

De Facto Tolls Solidify: Iran Moves to Formalize Strait of Hormuz Fees and Transit Bans

The Brent oil market shows an extreme divergence between the paper price (futures contracts) at $109 and the physical price…

2 mois ago

Energy lockdown risk dynamics post US-Iran conflict

Multi-engine analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a supply shock of 20 Mb/d (20%…

2 mois ago

Implications géopolitiques et macro-financières de la Stratégie de Défense Nationale (NDS) de 2026 telle que présentée

La Stratégie de Défense Nationale (NDS) du 23 janvier 2026 introduit une rupture dans la modélisation des risques souverains américains.…

5 mois ago