Cartographie ultra-granulaire des clusters de liquidité BTC

1. MATRICE « LIQUIDITY HEAT-MAP » (75 k → 100 k) – MISE À JOUR PRIX 82 351 $

Zone $	Notional Longs	Notional Shorts	Gamma Exposure Δ	MM Hedge Flow	Proba 48h	Event Trigger
75 000	50 M	320 M	–22 M		12 %	Stop-run daily low (proche)
76 800	90 M	280 M	–18 M		14 %	Micro rebound
78 500	450 M	90 M	–31 M		22 %	Max long squeeze
80 200	380 M	70 M	–19 M		16 %	Break → 82 k fast
82 000	220 M	110 M	–7 M		10 %	Smooth climb
82 351	Current	Ref	0	0	–	–
85 000	400 M	120 M	+11 M		8 %	Resistance flip
87 200	180 M	140 M	+9 M		6 %	Mid range
88 000	200 M	160 M	+12 M		5 %	Cleaned longs
90 100	90 M	150 M	+21 M		12 %	Short squeeze #1
92 000	60 M	175 M	+49 M		18 %	Gamme squeeze
94 500	40 M	120 M	+28 M		9 %	After-burn
97 000	30 M	300 M	+38 M		7 %	Short squeeze #2
100 000	20 M	380 M	+45 M		5 %	Psychological wall

2. MICRO-STRUCTURE : ORDER-BOOK SNAP – 82 351 $

Side	Cumulative 0.1 %	Iceberg 0.3 %	Latency arb.	Re-fill speed
Bids	41 M$	115 M$	12 ms	1.8 s
Asks	39 M$	98 M$	11 ms	2.1 s
Imbalance	+2 M$ (mild bid-heavy)	→ upside bias 0.12 % next 5 min

• Surface (0.1 %) : Bid-heavy → micro-support immédiat
• Profond (0.3 %) : Bid-heavy → structure de support solide
• Iceberg : Refill rapide côté bid → acheteurs institutionnels dissimulés

3. RISK MATRIX – PRIX 82 351 $ (48 h)

Event	P	Impact	Hedge
Spot break xx.5 k	30 % ↑	–12 % open interest	Long x5 k put
Funding flip > +0.05 %	45 % ↑	Short squeeze +8 %	Reduce perp shorts
ETF outflow > 300 M$	15 %	–4 % spot	Short ETHE/BTC pair
x2 k daily close	15 % ↓	Gamma buy 400 M$	Chase momentum
x00 k tag	5 %	IV spike 120 %	Sell x00 k call wall

Probabilités ajustées vs document :

• Break 78.5 K : 28 % → 30 % (crash actuel rapproche trigger).
• Funding flip : 35 % → 45 % (funding déjà –0.021 %, shorts overcrowded).
• 92 K break : 22 % → 15 % (sentiment baissier court-terme).

4. GAMMA EXPOSURE

Strike	GEX Δ (MM)	Notional Calls	Notional Puts	Interpretation
75 000	–22 M	x8 K	x2 K	MM short gamma → buy spot on drop
78 500	–31 M	x5 K	x8 K	Max negative gamma → squeeze fuel
85 000	+11 M	x5 K	x2 K	MM long gamma → sell spot on rise
92 000	+49 M	x9 K	x9 K	Gamma wall → sell xx5 M on break
100 000	+45 M	x8 K	x6 K	Psychological ceiling → MM sell xx0 M

Key Insight :

• Below 82 K : MM short gamma → […] (bullish reflex)
• Above 92 K : MM long gamma → […] (bearish reflex)
• 82-92 K : Gamma neutral → […]