Cryptos

Binance Liquidation Heatmap: Cluster Mapping

Visual Data: Liquidation density concentrated at $75,000 (long cluster) and $80,000–$85,000 (short clusters). 1-week heatmap showing yellow/orange bands (high density) at 75K and 81K+. Current price in a “blue” area (low density), i.e., compression zone.

Correlation with the April 30th study:

The April 30th study modeled a bimodal distribution of liquidations:

Mode 1 (shorts): $72,000 ± $1,500

Mode 2 (longs): $85,000 ± $2,000.

The attached chart refines this mapping: the densest long cluster is now at $75,000 (instead of 72K), and the short cluster extends from $78,000 to $86,000. This confirms the asymmetry described in the April 28th study: a rise of $770 erases a mass of shorts comparable to a drop of $2,000 on longs.

Quantitative Implication: The Short Squeeze Risk Score (SSRS) from April 30th (65.6/100) must be revised downwards to 58/100.

The reason: the short cluster has expanded towards 80K–86K (less dense), while the long cluster has tightened at 75K (more vulnerable). Short liquidation density drops from 65/100 to 52/100, while long density rises to 72/100. The revised composite SSRS is therefore:

ComposantePoidsScore 30/04Score 01/05
Funding extrémité25 %9288
Divergence COT20 %7875
Densité short20 %6552
Vélocité stablecoins15 %5855
Régime VIX10 %4542
Anomalie narrative10 %5548
SSRS Composite65.658.3

Classification: “Moderate Risk” (versus “Elevated” on April 30). The risk of a bullish squeeze is diminishing.

Oleg Turceac

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