Stablecoins, CBDC & ISO 20022: the new monetary plumbingThesis

Tokenization of real assets crossed the institutional tipping point in 2025/2026. The question is no longer if but where value lies: not in issuance (now commoditized) nor in speculation on tokens, but in secondary liquidity and asset selection that is, in measurement.

State of play (figures as of mid 2026)
• On chain value (excluding stablecoins): $33.5B on the canonical rwa.xyz dashboard, ×4 since early 2025 9. Referenced underlying assets: $369B.
• Composition: Tokenized Treasuries and money market funds $13/15B (BlackRock BUIDL leading, peak at $2.88B AUM); private credit $8/19B depending on methodology; gold and commodities $4.5/6B[50]; corporate bonds $1.8B; tokenized equities ~$1.1B (+46% in March 2026, most recent category).
• Distribution: Ethereum captures 60/70% of RWA TVL, but multi-chain architecture (Solana, Avalanche, Stellar for MMFs) is becoming the design norm.
• 2030/2034 projections: range $2,000B (McKinsey) to $30,000B (Standard Chartered), BCG median $16,000B.

Dynamics and risks

1. The liquidity paradox. Most tokens are issued and redeemed without trading; under broad definitions ($60B), 56% of assets are inactive. The secondary market for tokenized private credit is the decisive battleground for 2026/2028.
2. Concentration of quality. Only tokenized Treasuries have reached “production grade” maturity: $15B, 100 assets, 16 products $100M, 99% distributed on public rails. The rest of the spectrum remains heterogeneous in legal quality.
3. The wrapper risk. Tokenization does not change the legal nature of the asset only its representation. The enforceability of rights for the holder (SPV, trust, security) determines real value, not the smart contract.

Implications for allocation
• Overweight short duration, senior instruments (tokenized Treasuries, secured senior private credit) as a yield bearing on chain liquidity pocket.
• Underweight tokenized real estate and long duration assets until secondary markets exist or demand a 20/30% liquidity discount.
• Treat selection as a risk factor: 50+ protocols, zero unified benchmark continuous rating (quality, compliance, liquidity) becomes the critical infrastructure for the next phase.

2030 scenarios