The MVRV at 1.80 : Rally Signals and Structural Risks (November 2025)

The MVRV ratio of 1.80 at $99,906 USD is a strong buy signal, but it must be interpreted in the context of a systemic liquidity crisis and a structural market transformation. It is a tactical trading opportunity, not a long-term investment signal without caution.

I. TECHNICAL DECRYPTING: MVRV AT 1.80 IS A BUY SIGNAL, BUT NOT AUTOMATIC SUPPORT

The MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for identifying cycle phases. Our calculation is correct: as of November 6, 2025, with a price of $99,906 USD and a Realized Cap of $1.1 trillion, the MVRV is 1.80. This figure is in the « Healthy Accumulation » zone (MVRV 1.3 – 2.0), which confirms our thesis of a buying opportunity.

Strategic Interpretation

❶ Healthy Accumulation Zone (MVRV 1.80)

This means the price is slightly above the average cost basis of holders. There is neither panic (MVRV < 1.0) nor euphoria (MVRV > 3.0). This is the ideal phase for regular accumulation (DCA).

❷ On-chain data confirmation

The analysis mentions the flushing out of new whales (>1000 recent BTC) whose cost basis is $112,788. The fact that the price fell below this level at the end of October is strong evidence of the « weak hands flush. » This eliminates excess leverage and sets the stage for a rally.

❸ Complementary technical signal

The break of the $105,500 resistance is the technical trigger to enter a […] position via futures. The current price $104K is therefore an aggressive […] opportunity on the spot market, with a partial profit-taking target at […].

Ꚛ Technical Conclusion

Yes, the MVRV of 1.80 fully validates our accumulation and position-taking strategy. It is a quality signal, supported by the STH purge and liquidity data.

II. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: FED LIQUIDITY IS THE FUEL, BUT SOFR REVEALS STRUCTURAL TENSION

The real strength behind this opportunity comes not just from MVRV, but from the conjunction of three major macroeconomic forces, as we previously analyzed

❶ Massive liquidity injection by the Fed (Disguised QE)

The sharp drop in SOFR to 3.92% (the lowest since 2023) is a T1 magnitude macro event. It results from the draining of the TGA (-$17B in 7 days) and the collapse of the RRP (-$47B in 6 days). This represents an injection of ~$90B in liquidity in November, equivalent to massive monthly QE. This liquidity will inevitably seek out risk assets.

❷ Crypto Liquidity Crisis

The Stream Finance event (loss of $93M, depeg of xUSD) triggered a $285M contagion in DeFi, creating a « digital bank run » effect. Stablecoins lost parity, and exchanges are under pressure. This caused forced selling of BTC and ETH, creating an artificially low market bottom.

❸ Crisis Convergence

We are witnessing a historic convergence of three liquidity crises (TradFi, Crypto, Shadow Banking). Low SOFR is the fuel, but the crypto crisis is the catalyst. The market is purging risky positions, which creates an opportunity for institutional investors.

◙ Implication

The potential rally towards $1×5,000-$1×6,000 is not an organic market move, but a forced « short squeeze. » The price will be drawn towards sell-side liquidity zones (massive sell orders) to liquidate short positions. This is a technical, non-fundamental move.

◙ The MVRV of 1.80 at $104K USD is a strong […] signal, confirmed by the flushing out of STHs (short-term holders) and the liquidity injected by the Fed. However, this signal must be interpreted in the context of a systemic liquidity crisis and a structural market transformation. The potential rally towards $1xx,000-$1xx,000 is a forced « short squeeze, » not a fundamental move. The real opportunity lies in strategic positioning for the Spring phase of 2026, using this crisis as an accumulation window. The key is to remain cautious and manage risk, as the current crisis could evolve into a bubble or systemic chaos.