$314.68B as of 21/06/2026 (382 issuers, DefiLlama), ~$323B at all-time high in May 2026, with remarkable resilience during a crypto bear market of -48%. Concentration: USDT $186.35B (59.22%) and USDC ~$77B = 83.02% of the market. USDC: +28% outstanding in Q1 2026, on-chain volume +263% to $21,500B.
The market processed >$33,000B in on-chain transactions in 2025, exceeding Visa’s annual volume. US regulation (GENIUS Act, law of 18/07/2025): final OCC/Treasury rules targeted for 18/07/2026, full enforcement January 2027; 1:1 reserve in cash/Treasuries, monthly third-party attestations, BSA financial institution status for issuers. EU: MiCA applicable, distribution of unauthorized stablecoins prohibited to CASPs. Hong Kong: ordinance in effect since 01/08/2025, first two HKMA licenses in April 2026.
CBDC, facts. Digital euro: European Parliament voted its position at ~70%, trilogue started in July 2026; 36 PSPs selected for a 12-month pilot starting H2 2027 (launch September 2027), first potential issuance in 2029; estimated bank investment cost €4-5.8B over four years (~3.4% of significant banks’ annual IT budget).
In parallel, the ECB is building Pontes (interoperable DLT bridge with Target Services, go-live end of 2026) and Appia (integrated European DLT capital markets, long-term). Strategic reading. Two competing regimes: the US model privatizes issuance (regulated stablecoins = quasi-narrow banks); the European hybrid model keeps the central bank at the top (CBDC) while licensing private initiative (EMT/CASP).
The billion-dollar point of attention: the “2 to 4 issuers” consolidation anticipated by nearly all 2026 forecasts concentrates rail risk, for any RWA portfolio whose rent is paid in stablecoins, the choice of issuer is a counterparty risk decision, hence the value of continuous scoring like SSSI. Banking analyst projections: $1,000-2,000B addressable stablecoin market by 2030 if GENIUS↔️MiCA interoperability.
~30-35 billion USD in AUM by mid-2026 (versus ~8 billion USD in January 2024), representing…
Bitcoin remains a reserve asset with a structure showing recovery from $58-62k, rejection under $81-86k,…
Title: The tokenized real-world asset market has fundamentally changed. It's no longer a bet on…
Thesis. Not all technological revolutions are equal as investment themes, they are equal as cost…
In September 2026, three key facts emerge. The ECB launches Pontes on September 21, enabling…
The framework is a two-regime Markov model with observable states, not a calibrated HMM Regime…