RWA & tokenization: maturity through flows Thesis. The tokenized real-world asset market has changed regimes

~30-35 billion USD in AUM by mid-2026 (versus ~8 billion USD in January 2024), representing ~75% year-over-year growth, driven by tokenized treasuries (~15 billion USD, +100%/year), private credit (~10-12 billion USD), alternative funds (~2-3 billion USD), and commodities (~1.5 billion USD). The determinant is no longer narrative but structural: the product paradigm has shifted from speculative appreciation to yield generation, a private credit and fixed income logic transplanted on-chain. Analysis framework.

Three metrics differentiate protocols: (1) underlying quality (seniority, legal recourse, SPV jurisdiction); (2) flow transparency (traceability of yield to its economic source); (3) regulatory compliance (MiCA, SEC framework, governance).

The standout event of 2026 is institutionalization: BlackRock’s BUIDL exceeding 2.6 billion USD, USYC integrated into Circle’s redemption flows (~2.9 billion USD), DTCC creating a tokenization business line, UniCredit investing in BlockInvest. Projections and risks. 2030 scenarios range from 2,000 billion USD (McKinsey, conservative) to 16,000 billion USD (BCG/Ripple, high adoption).

The primary risk is not technological but legal: the strength of recourse on the underlying in the event of issuer default. Secondary risk: issuer concentration (Securitize + Ondo > 50% of net flows). Allocation conclusion. Overweight contractual income RWAs (treasuries, senior private credit); require independent scoring of protocol quality; treat any non-traceable yield as phantom yield. Target trade duration: 5-10 years.