Is Gold’s Bull Market Alive? China’s Soaring Imports Say Yes, Charts Say No

According to Brian Lundin, while the West sets gold prices, China is buying it up. While news headlines continue to confirm my skepticism about any peace agreement between the US and Iran, bulls in the metals markets feel like they are being punished for something.

https://www.steelldy-indices.com

While other “risk assets” are rising, gold and silver are falling: at the time of writing, both metals have lost about 1.5%. The good news, if it can be called that, is that gold held above the key level of $4,000 after surpassing it again late last week. The drop below $4,000 last week occurred after a sharp crash of $110 on Wednesday. “The next day, I noted: I have seen this scenario many times before. And while I cannot yet claim that a bottom has formed, and it would be foolish to try… yesterday it seemed to me that this was the bottom. As always, we’ll see. But at some point, it seemed like gold was trying to break through this key support line to push out as many players as possible who sell at the first signs of a decline. Now these short-term players have left the market and joined the ranks of Western traders who have abandoned gold in favor of artificial intelligence and other trendy trends.”

Several charts clearly show what is happening in the gold market. Let’s start with gold ETFs and trusts, where (mostly) traders hold gold in paper form: As the chart shows, since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, total gold holdings in global ETFs and other funds have significantly decreased. Again, this is due to the conflict’s impact on oil prices, and thus on inflation and ultimately on Fed policy. And Fed policy determines everything for traders. But that’s not all… “Here we see open interest in gold on the COMEX exchange“.

Despite open interest rising in recent weeks, likely due to an increase in short positions, it remains at historically low levels. In fact, looking at the long-term chart, open interest is at a peak of apathy—its lowest level in decades. All of this indicates that Western investors have virtually lost interest in gold. And since Western markets still dictate prices, well… you’ve seen the charts. But now the interesting part begins. While the West sets gold prices, China is buying it up. Take a look at this chart, which has attracted a lot of attention: As you can see, China’s gold imports have reached a two-year high.

As Bloomberg reports: According to customs data released on Saturday, import volume last month reached approximately 163 tons—the highest value since March 2024. From January to May 2026, import volume reached about 692 tons, an increase of 76% year-on-year. Last week, I said that the gold market maintains a bullish trend. Moreover, the outlook for debt, deficits, and servicing costs suggests this will be the most extensive and significant bull market in our lifetime. I still believe that in a bull market, you need to buy on dips. That’s exactly what China is doing, and its example is worth noting.