Ethereum and XRP Struggle, but Privacy Coin ZEC Soars 2,500% Since October

BTC . The last notable closing high occurred above $81.3k, with a close near $86.6k on September 21. Current compression is below $85.2-85.4k.

A bullish moving average stack is present (7-day SMA ~$84.3k, 20-day SMA ~$82.8k, 50-day SMA ~$79k, 200-day SMA ~$71.5k).

The distance from the October 2025 all-time high is approximately -33%. For the week ending September 25, spot US ETF inflows were about $2.39 billion, the highest since October 2025, enough to turn the 2026 year-to-date positive (around +$0.9 billion after -$5.7 billion in mid-July).

The following week saw only ~$83 million in inflows. IBIT purchased ~$196 million in a single session in early October, with a rolling month total of ~$1.57 billion.

CME leveraged funds only covered a fraction of the absorption from the large week, indicating some demand is directional, not just basis trades. Strategy continued buying above its cost basis. Citi raised its 12-month target to $113k, contingent on ~$5 billion in crypto-ETF inflows. Addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC increased by 41,025 BTC over ten days at the end of September. Structural invalidation of the rebound would occur with a loss of the June low near $58k and the long-term realized price around $50-52k. Tactical invalidation is a close below $81.3k.

ETH is spot trading around $2,700, about 45% below its all-time high. US ETFs saw net outflows of approximately -$118 million from September 28 to October 2, while BTC remained slightly positive. The 14-day RSI is ~61, above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. There is no leadership. The “smart contract L1” beta is currently driven by SOL on ETF flows and ZEC on narrative, not ETH. Structural support is at $2,650-2,680, with immediate resistance at $2,710-2,780.

XRP is around $1.50, about -50% from its 52-week high of ~$3.04. The institutional case is delivered and priced in: the SEC appeal was abandoned in August 2025, a joint SEC/CFTC commodity classification occurred in March 2026, spot US ETFs were launched, with cumulative inflows of ~$1.4-1.5 billion against ~$1.0-1.1 billion in assets. The realized price is close to the spot price (~$1.48), meaning a large portion of the supply is underwater, suggesting capitulation rather than distribution.

Exchange reserves are at multi-year lows. Whale accumulation has been reported.

RLUSD has a market cap over $1.6 billion and an expansion in Turkey, which is useful for the ledger but ambiguous for the token bridge. Technical resistance is cited at $1.60 and then $2.00, with demand below $1.25-1.20.

SOL is around $121, still about 58% below its January 2025 peak of ~$294. It has recovered from around $75 in early August. Spot US ETFs saw a record day of ~$87 million on September 25, a week of ~$181 million, and total assets under management of ~$2.0 billion.

Alpenglow is on devnet, with mainnet-beta migration still ahead. Firedancer has been on mainnet since late 2025. On-chain stablecoins are at an all-time high (~$17.4 billion), with daily active users over 8 million. A trend change level cited by the market is a weekly close above $150. Below $100-105, the August rebound is questioned; $75 is the local cycle floor.

ZEC is the only one of the five in a regime of dislocation. Privacy coins are up ~+213% since the BTC top in October 2025; ZEC is up ~+2,500% in that window, moving from rank ~80 to the top 10-12, with a market cap of ~$22 billion.

The catalyst is the conversion of the Grayscale Zcash Trust into the spot ETF ZCSH, with assets under management of ~$410-460 million in two weeks. The shielded pool is ~4.94 million ZEC (~29% of supply) after Ironwood / NU6.3.

NU7 has a release candidate in early October, targeting a 25-second block time and a fee recycling mechanism. The price is ~$1,330 after a 16-20% pullback over seven days, but still up 30-38% over 30 days. ATR and open interest exploded during the vertical rally. This is an asset with a gap skew, not one for mean-reversion.