Oleg Turceac

Liquidity Trap Scenario : Gold < $4,150, Oil ~$88 Stabilization – Integration with SpaceX IPO Retail Influx and Systemic Market Crash Risks

Executive Summary The posited Liquidity Trap manifests as a regime where elevated nominal asset prices (gold near recent highs, equities…

5 jours ago

ESG/Fiscal Dimensions of Refiner Margin Squeeze: Carbon Pricing (Internal Shadow Prices) and Tax Loss Harvesting – TotalEnergies Case Study

1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow…

6 jours ago

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread}…

6 jours ago

Inflation Surge Crushes Gold & Silver Amidst Geopolitical Turbulence

Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This…

6 jours ago

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ)…

2 semaines ago

The construction of a conditional hedge for Bitcoin (BTC) against systemic risks from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs)

CTAs, large systematic trend-following funds, can trigger massive redemptions and forced selling during correlated drawdowns in tech indices like the…

2 semaines ago

Deep Microstructure Audit, CTA Liquidity Hunting & « Left-Side » Accumulation Detection @ 66,752 USD

The current BTC price is part of a deep liquidity hunt orchestrated by |...| algorithms to trigger the programmed liquidation…

2 semaines ago

Stellar’s DTCC Partnership: Hype vs. Reality for Tokenized Assets

The announcement of a partnership between the DTCC and the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) for asset tokenization on Stellar by…

2 semaines ago

Silver vs. Gold: When and Why Silver Often Takes the Lead

Silver, a unique hybrid asset (monetary, industrial, speculative, linked to energy transition), exhibits higher volatility than gold. Its price is…

2 semaines ago

Gold Prices Dip, But Fund Manager Sees Long-Term Rally Intact

Excerpt from the article by Neils Christensen The gold market has experienced a downturn, with prices falling below $4,500 and…

2 semaines ago