The most violent “short squeeze” in Ethereum’s history, surpassing the previous BTC

Le « short squeeze » le plus violent de l’histoire d’Ethereum, dépassant le précédent BTC !!!

❶ Le prix actuel d’environ 4 694 $ représente la zone « last call » avant le franchissement de l’ATH de 4 891 $.

❷ L’Open Interest total dépasse 21 MD$, avec un levier moyen de 8‑12x et concentration de shorts 4,5K‑5K. Une fois la résistance psychologique brisée, la capitulation des bears s’enclenchera, aggravée par un gamma negative : les MM sont short gamma au‑dessus de 4,9K $ et achèteront à chaque hausse, créant une auto‑amplification.

❸ Les institutions comme BlackRock (16 MD$ d’ETH) et les futurs ETF spot – apporteront une demande structurelle.

Le scénario prévoit :

– une montée de xK‑x,2K $ (liquidation technique),

– puis x,8K‑x,2K $ (gamma squeeze + FOMO) et

– enfin x‑xK $ (allocation ETF).

Une vitesse de x,7K‑xK $ en 5‑10 jours est plausible.

❺ Stratégie : entrer dès  x,x‑x,xK $ (DCA), placer des stops, prendre 30 % à x,xK, 40 % à xK, garder 30 % pour xK+.

❻ Risques : corrélation BTC (<xx0K$), régulation SEC, sur‑levier global. Downside limité (~x,xK $) ; upside exponentiel.

Bref contexte pour la lecture du graphique :
¤ Les barres représentent l’Open Interest exposé (en milliards $) simulé par niveau de prix (3000$ → 5900$).
¤ Les lignes rouges marquent des niveaux clés : 3 000$, ATH 4 891$, 5 000$, 5 500$.
¤ La grosse concentration d’OI autour de 4 800–5 300$ montre pourquoi un franchissement de l’ATH pourrait déclencher des liquidations massives (5k → 5,5k = plusieurs milliards $).

11.6 billion dollars scenario is very credible because:
¤ We have already seen –3 billion liquidated on ETH movements of only +10–12%.
¤ At ATH, the short risk becomes exponential because all the stops are concentrated at the same level.
¤ This kind of setup produced parabolic rallies in 2017 (BTC) and in 2021 (ETH).

ETH Short Squeeze — Decoding
¤ Threshold $3,000 → ≈$2 bn of shorts liquidated (the “early squeeze” level already partially tested).
¤ Threshold $5,000 (ATH test) → ≈$4.8 bn of shorts exposed (intermediate catalyst).
¤ Threshold $5,500–$5,800 (clear new ATH) → ≈$11.6 bn of shorts at risk (gamma snowball effect + derivatives).

Expected mechanics
¤ Break ATH ($4 891–4 900) → triggers the first technical derailment.
¤ Institutional FOMO (BlackRock / Fidelity / Grayscale) → immediate influx of ETF buyers.
¤ Massive gamma hedging by market makers → forced buying on spot/futures.
¤ Snowball effect: moving from $5 000 to $5 800 can happen in under 48 h if volume exceeds $150–180 bn/day.

Oleg Turceac

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