From Neutral to Overweight: Fidelity’s Gold Playbook for a 2027 Comeback

Fidelity predicts the return of a bull market for gold in 2027. According to Ian Samson, manager of multi-asset portfolios at Fidelity International, the key trends that drove gold to an all-time high of $5,600 earlier this year remain intact, and the precious metal will resume its bull market in 2027, justifying a shift from a neutral stance to an overweight position in investment portfolios. Samson stated in a recent interview that Fidelity plans to increase its gold allocation again, with the question being when to act. Despite gold posting its worst quarterly performance in over a decade, he noted that the fundamental logic behind gold’s long-term trajectory has not been disproven.

Samson had previously reduced Fidelity’s gold position from overweight to neutral earlier this year, a move made before the multi-year bull run was interrupted when gold prices began declining from their record high near $5,600 in late January, with the drop accelerating after the war with Iran began. Fidelity does not expect gold to immediately resume its prior upward trend. Samson acknowledged that tactically, there are currently as many headwinds as tailwinds, though he predicts gold prices will be slightly higher by year-end than current levels.

However, he emphasized that the company’s long-term confidence in gold remains, with expectations for gold to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. Samson argued that the bull trend for gold will remain intact as long as the global macroeconomic environment does not undergo fundamental changes, and governments do not return to orthodox fiscal policies while central banks fail to meaningfully reduce inflation. He does not believe the world is currently in such a scenario. The exact timing and degree of gold’s price recovery will depend on several key variables, including the future trajectory of oil prices, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, and whether the gold market itself can recover and sustain upward momentum.

Technically, Samson believes gold prices may find support near $4,000 in the short term, but he is waiting for a clear bullish signal, such as the 50-day moving average crossing above the long-term moving average, or gold prices returning above $4,300. Fundamentally, Samson pointed to central bank demand as the most important structural force supporting gold prices in the medium to long term. He concluded that with such large, structural, and strategic buyers, it is almost inevitable for gold prices to rise.