Convergence of ETF flows (TradFi) and forced Fed liquidity (Macro), all overlaid on our technical Short Squeeze target

I. DIAGNOSTIC OF ETF FLOWS (The TradFi Tailwind)

The analysis of November 6, 2025, reveals a major strategic pivot, confirming the institutional « Buy The Dip » thesis. (a) The Washout is Over: The massive outflow of 19,000 BTC (~$2 Billion USD) over six days has effectively flushed out the weakest positions, primarily those of investors who bought at the peak of the breakout at $100k and panicked at the first correction. This forced liquidation, while painful in the short term, is a healthy market cleansing. It eliminates « weak hands » and creates a solid foundation for the rebound. The fact that the price is stabilizing around $102k after this deluge of selling is a strong sign of institutional support.

(b) The Return of the Leader (BlackRock): The entry of +2384 BTC ($92.25M), led by BlackRock’s IBIT (+922 BTC), is the most reliable signal. When the world’s largest asset manager returns to buying, it can only be interpreted as a tactical accumulation opportunity. Institutional investors see this correction not as a collapse, but as an attractive entry window.

(c) ETH: Conviction Spreads: The massive inflow into ETH ETFs (+10,789 ETH / $35.86M), particularly via the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust, confirms our analysis. The current crisis in the DeFi/Stream sector is perceived as an application problem, not an infrastructure problem. Institutional funds, far from fleeing, are accumulating ETH at a reduced price, betting on its long-term resilience. This strengthens the thesis that we are in an accumulation cycle preceding a major rally.

(d) Macro Surveillance: H.4.1 Report (Fed Balance Sheet): Weekly surveillance (Thursday). The necessity of disguised QE (drop in bank reserves / acceleration of SRF) needs to be confirmed. The engine of the rally is monetary policy. A sign of easing or support from the Fed would be the final catalyst to break through the resistance at $105,500.

(e) The rebound in ETF flows clearly shows that institutional capital is ready to finance the rally. The market is now waiting for the macroeconomic catalyst (the Fed Pivot) to break through the $105,500 USD resistance. Time is a critical factor: We have entered the period where Fed intervention and the CPI report (mid-November schedule) are imminent. Patience is essential, but action must be swift as soon as the signal is given.