Analyse de marché

The emergence of a Gas-Wheat correlation of 0.75 indicates a transmission of energy shocks to agriculture not modeled by traditional approaches

This study presents a multi-layer quantitative intelligence architecture for modeling extreme geopolitical risk, applied to the current Persian Gulf crisis.…

2 mois ago

Predictions for the 2026 midterm elections

Predictions for the 2026 midterm elections are overwhelmingly negative for the Republican Party (GOP). Trump's approval rating is between 42…

2 mois ago

Geopolitics, Monetary Risks Fuel UBS $6,200 Gold Price Target by End of 2026

UBS analysts forecast a significant increase in gold prices, predicting a rise of 20% to reach $6,200 per ounce by…

2 mois ago

Debt, Deficits, and Dollar Debasement Fueling Gold’s Bull Market

In a podcast discussion, Mike Maharrey of Money Metals interviewed Brian Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, regarding factors…

2 mois ago

Capital Flight from the Emirates to Stablecoins – The « Digital Safe Haven » Phenomenon in the Context of Geopolitical Crisis

The integrated analysis of the Steelldy Risk Engine and Steelldy Gotham confirms that the USDC stablecoin has become the preferred…

2 mois ago

Private Credit Risk Assessment and Liquidity Contagion Dynamics

Morgan Stanley (MS) is experiencing a severe liquidity crisis in its Direct Lending segment.This pressure stems from three systemic factors:…

3 mois ago

The US Treasury announcement on 03/13/2026 temporarily lifts restrictions on Russian oil

The US Treasury issued a temporary waiver on restrictions for certain stranded Russian oil shipments, announced around March 12-13, 2026,…

3 mois ago

Return of Russian oil. Systemic inversion of hydrocarbon flows (Russia–EU). Collapse of the risk premium and gravitation of liquidity clusters.

Europe has hit a mathematical wall: the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 5 to 7 million barrels…

3 mois ago

Liste des exploitations pétrolières & gazières fermées dans les pays du Golf (statut : shut-in / offline)

I. Émirat du Qatar Le Qatar, dépendant à 100% du détroit d'Ormuz pour son exportation de GNL, est le premier…

3 mois ago

Diagnostic de convergence du Brent vers le seuil de 85,00 USD. Analyse de la backwardation extrême et de l’équilibre de long terme (horizon 12M).

1. Modélisation quantitative de la crise Ormuz Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse]Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse] Notre modèle quantitatif de la crise de l'Hormuz simule la dynamique de…

3 mois ago